EUR

"Blaming foreign speculators for the continents troubles may be a popular sport in Paris and Berlin, but most of those problems are entirely homegrown. Europes dirty secret is that its banking sector is sicker than Wall Street. European banks losses from the last financial crisis will hit $1.3 trillion by the end of this year, according to the International Monetary Funds latest forecast35 percent more than the U.S. total. And while Europes banks were just as aggressive as Americas in gambling on toxic debt, most European governments have done less than America to clean up the mess. Now, European lenders are increasingly nervous about the money theyve plowed into overindebted countries like Greece. Together, Europes banks have funneled $2.5 trillion into the five shakiest euro-zone economies: Greece, Ireland, Belgium, Portugal, and Spain."
http://www.newsweek.com/2010/07/02/worse-than-wall-street.html

I agree, timing is everythiing, and for me the chart itself will indicate when the probabilities of a downtrend are in place. Friday's rally lost some steam, perhaps a double top will show itself.

where do you think guys we should short euro dollar?
ashraf predicted around 1.28
i would like to hear your views to reach best analysis

Euro came a long way very quickly,it was supported by some positive fundamentals happening in europe at same time as negative data came out in the states,also fair to say it was oversold and once the move was underway a lot of shorts had to be covered rapidly which amplified the upward move.However as we well know,rapid upward movements even more than rapid down moves have a tendency to fall back often as rapidly as they have risen,the problems that caused euro to decline are still out there!Should another threat of a downgrade or light demand manifest at a sovereign auction or industrial unrest of which theres plenty planned,or more obvious signs of a slowing china or any number of still unsolved problems raise an ugly head.Like a needle bursting a balloon there is now much more potential distance in a downside fall even with the bolingers now widened than there was before!

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