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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Feb 20, 2010 5:00
Comments: 30765
Posted: Feb 20, 2010 5:00
Comments: 30765
Forum Topic:
EUR
Discuss EUR in this thread
Like many here, I am a long-term gold bull as well but will trade the trends in the interim as I don't believe gold will fully breakout until there is confirmed velocity to this money, though the market will do everything it can to front-run that velocity. I would not be surprised to a new high set in 2010, however, I personally would not be comfortable entering into a locked in long (i.e. you will not trade around that core position) any earlier than the 200 day MA. If the 200 day fails, then I would expect it to occur in the midst of a double-dip but would anticipate a bounce in the low-to-mid 800s, establishing a higher high (higher than the 700 area we capitulated to in 2007) and revealing a trendline drawn from the lows in 2003 and 2008, essentially the last two times gold touched or came extremely close to touching the 200 day MA as support.
Just my personal current outlook, nothing more.
short gbpusd at 1.5488. be now looking for downside below action area. unsure about usd strength at present. whats ur thoughts ? where do u c gold if sp drops 20% over the year can we touch the 200 ma again. i am not sure if i will get the chance to go long gld from that point if dollar weakens. gld bull, fiat currency bear
many thanks
"The European Union is suing Greece to force it to repay 230 million euros (about $313 million) in what it says were illegal subsidies given to the Hellenic Shipyards between 1996 and 2002, the European Commission said April 14, AFP reported. EU Competition Commissioner Joaquin Almunia said in a statement that Greece had not followed EU conditions when giving the aid to the financially stricken shipyards."
I have already opened a NOK account and a DKK account.
http://www.istockanalyst.com/article/viewarticle/articleid/4027061
@PippedOff: I hope you are laughing at this somewhere.
UBS
EURUSD 1.3818 Key
The Trend-Cycle model is far from perfect. Last week, it's negative readings (red bars) had me looking at the recovery from 1.3283 as a small wave .2 correction. It turned out to be much more.
Notice today that the model is turning neutral (black bar). It's the first cyclical evidence that the bear trend is indeed taking a notable breather, at a minimum. It also brings up the possibility of a rather bullish wave count. Note that the downswing from 1.5144 (November 25 high) to 1.3268 (March 25 low) now looks liked a completed five-wave move for wave ((i)). That means wave ((ii)) has been correcting higher from 1.3268.
It's maintaining the necessary three-leg path, but so far it's a bit stunted in relationship to wave ((i)). Normally, a correction of this degree would retrace 0.382 of wave (i) and/or reach the previous fourth wave of one lesser degree. In this case, those levels come in at 1.3818 and 1.3985, respectively.
Finally, and this is just one possibility, second waves often retrace 0.618 of the respective first waves. So in this case, if 1.3818/1.3985 cannot hold back this correction, 1.4427 (0.618 of 1.5144-1.3268 would certainly become a possibility.
do you think that risk appetite in equity markets may continue to pressure the dollar and provide EUR/USD support ?
I'm waiting a sharp rally on USD dispite Bernanke' fears on labour market and Us deficits
thanks
dj
i wouldnt short eur right now...
preffer long site...but i will decide when the day is over..