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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Feb 20, 2010 5:00
Comments: 30765
Posted: Feb 20, 2010 5:00
Comments: 30765
Forum Topic:
EUR
Discuss EUR in this thread
Not enough attention is being placed on the PROPER austerity plan required to get that deficit/GDp ratio down. More emphasis is being centered on price impact (bond spreads and euro moves) as well as on the ability for Greece to raise money in its short term bond forays.
Ashraf
"Last week Prof. Steve Hall of the London School of Economics has received a honorary doctorate at the University of Pretoria. We could talk with him. He acts as adviser for the Bank of Greece. Hmm...
Do they have big trouble - Yes! (And a lot of it started with the Olympics).
Will they default - No!
Will the EZ fall apart and the EURO - No!
Will there be contagion - not likely to a significant extent because countries like Portugal to a lesser extent, but Spain and Italy are just large and dynamic enough not to worry too much about that.
Then he said something interesting. They believe the solution is a swap of Greece (euro) bonds for German (euro) bonds. (No detail, but just the point, there is another rather simple solution not yet on the table.)
We will see how that eventually pans out."
the asian reaction is a bit reluctant nothing much, euro has been the single currency to go down for a long time but right now its a suicide to trade euro anyways i am not trading euro untill it reestablishes its downtrend or changes the trend. Greece out of the picture but with GS in the court it might give us some impulsive drawdowns in stocks but nothing much i believe. we already have the downtrend for more than 4 months.