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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Feb 22, 2010 5:00
Comments: 1558
Posted: Feb 22, 2010 5:00
Comments: 1558
Forum Topic:
JPY
Discuss JPY
I have fond memories of Japs for doing business. Back in the 80's early 90's I was manufacturing/exporting high performance race engines. The Japs were my favourite customers for straight business, honourable and very polite gentlemen. In those days they used to copy everything from UK, then they became top quality engineers in their own right. Where did we go wrong in the UK ? Answer-- Maggie Thatcher dreadie.
but soros said currency war, then suppose i should believe it?
back to fundi, jap debt problem...i made my assumption, if jap can weaken JPY further, then no debt problem; vice versa. thus, no matter what happens, JPY weakness for sure.
cat, say something about currency war?
Could well be that we'll see more weakness of JPY vs majors but will be a bumpy road. Even if a cheap JPY fosters exports of made in Japan that is not what the global economy wants. The US, the UK and desperately the Ezone economies all need to raise exports.
And China economy still 100% export dependend. Thus a cheaper JPY will yield more carry trade. And there is more, namely Japan is biggest holder of US debt. China is biggest holder of Japan debt ( outside Japan). For a short time I went long JPY vs GBP and EUR. Further long CAD vs USD. In general BOJ easing will hit Ezone harder then any other economy.
Also interesting comments re no positions in China cos can't believe their #'s. Yes yes I know, but this guy positions long term.
http://kylebassblog.blogspot.co.uk/
What's the betting his selection will be another ex GS man ?
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Ashraf
Ashraf