Forum > View Topic

by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Feb 22, 2010 5:00
Comments: 1558

Forum Topic:

JPY

Discuss JPY

< Newer Older >

1...34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48...156

djellal

LAUSANNE, Switzerland

Posts: 531

13 years ago

Sep 29, 2011 1:52

@ Ashraf,

Analyts at Nomura think that the Boj will be at 76.00, don't you think that they will be there... with Panasonic wich are forwarding their production in china, don't you think Boj will react ?

Ashraf Laidi

London, UK

Posts: 0

13 years ago

Sep 29, 2011 1:20

I posted TWO Daily charts on USDJPY in Wednesday's Premium, supporting what ive said earlier.

Direct Access here http://www.ashraflaidi.com/products/sub01/access/?a=506

Ashraf

Ashraf Laidi

London, UK

Posts: 0

13 years ago

Sep 28, 2011 11:39

Still see a big drop in USDJPY

Here is the latest Premium USDJPY trade, still in progress.

Monday's short USDJPY between 76.30-76.70, for limit between 75.70-76.10, stop at 77.15 remains in progress.

Ashraf

jacek

Melbourne, Australia

Posts: 2579

13 years ago

Sep 28, 2011 0:29

maybe?.. but won't be BOJ.. like SNB.. they're just keeping the floor under it..

Helmut

Hannover, Germany

Posts: 24

13 years ago

Sep 25, 2011 15:13

@fresbee, In the meantime until something is happening I enter long with every new low and specify a sell limit on the earlier position. With the swinging around 76/78 I can make sure that my position is in the money. If course all this with money management. For this trade I am ready to risk 5% of my FX trading money.

What I have seen last week that there is liquidity panic in the market which also brings down the Gold/Silver/Cooper. Looks like many positions getting liquidated from parties requiring cash. I observe a Deutsche Postbank floater ISIN: DE000A0DHUM0 which is now at 45% instead of 80%-100% which would be normal. This is a good indicator to show the liquify crunch.

The USD/JPY is still doing pretty good, USD and JPY booth are strong, anyways we have to wait.

fresbee

France

Posts: 5

13 years ago

Sep 25, 2011 9:40

@Helmut

Very good trade. JPY is showing all signs of a massive reversal which may now or sometime soon. Intervention is coming for sure. question is when?

Look at chf. CHF had weakened from 0.82 to 0.84 and only then did SNB peg it. So just helped it on its way. I think JPY will turn from here and on to 78 and BoJ will give it one final kick in rear, and it should finally be on its way to where it belongs.

Helmut

Hannover, Germany

Posts: 24

13 years ago

Sep 24, 2011 21:32

@Xaron, linking the Yen to a fixed exchange rate would be one option to save the export industry. I believe the most important counter currency for the Japanese export is the USD. In the monthly chart, a proper USD/JPY target rate could be between 85 and 100. I learned from a Japanese company that they calculate their prices with 85, now we are at 10% below 85. This means an upside potential between 12% and 30%.

I am long USD/JPY with a pretty large amount, at 77,40 and 77,90 I have two additional long orders waiting to be executed when BOJ is ready to intervene. I have the existing USD/JPY positions without stops because when they intervene there can be heavy spikes to kick out others.

A stronger Yen will kill the J-Export industry, pretty much like in Switzerland. For this reason I believe there is upside potential. Being Long with FX has no daily rollover costs because interests rate in Japan is lower than in the US.

Gruss Helmut

jacek

Melbourne, Australia

Posts: 2579

13 years ago

Sep 24, 2011 13:06

looks like will go higher next week..

Xaron

Munich, Germany

Posts: 528

13 years ago

Sep 22, 2011 15:19

I wonder what would happen if the BOJ follows the SNB by pegging the JPY to a currency like the EUR at 120? :D