Forum > View Topic
by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Feb 22, 2010 5:00
Comments: 1558
Posted: Feb 22, 2010 5:00
Comments: 1558
Forum Topic:
JPY
Discuss JPY
Dave.. i think this might be actually called "fat tail".. and there is actually quite rational explanation for its occurrence..
@giveme, same apllies to chf but perceived safe haven currencies have an ongoing problem with this which has proved impossible for their CB's to curtail. Intervention has only momentary effect and its very difficult to predict exact timing of any intervention. The answer really is to avoid these pairs or only take legitimate trade set-ups on smaller timeframes to the long side.
Japan debt is like a "bug in search of a windshield" (John Mauldin) with their economy often quoted as 2 lost decades. They have the advantage of sovereign bond sales almost entirely internal which permits very low cost of debt servicing. However the older generation of savers investing in bonds is fast dieing out and struggling to live without cashing their investments. Once this internal resource can no longer finance ever increasing sovereign debt the cost of serving that debt will start to increase. Just 1% increase in debt servicing costs will create mayhem----let alone 2,3% !
There are many things in the markets that "should not be" but I have always found it surprising how long a condition can prevail. Mkts are largely irrational through ignorance 90% of the time.
"..The page you have requested is unfortunately not available.."..