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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Feb 22, 2010 5:00
Comments: 3054
Forum Topic:

GBP

Discuss GBP
 
INGbalek
Trencin, Slovakia
Posts: 120
14 years ago
Apr 15, 2010 19:20
@catnip...
I saw ur contributions to eurGBP, so u had to see this trendline, best seen on D1 timeframe, which could perfectly be treated like strong support..

Dont u expect any reversal in this pair?
Because I think that the whole bunch of traders over the globe has to have it drawn, and maybe BUY LIMIT orders allready set...

any obstacles that would negate it???
ptaczek
Brno, Czech Republic
Posts: 110
14 years ago
Apr 15, 2010 15:47
...and such a nice drop it was today. Im deploying hedges on GBPCHF against my GBPUSD shorts - slowly, carefully, patiently.
ptaczek
Brno, Czech Republic
Posts: 110
14 years ago
Apr 15, 2010 6:49
newswire

Telegraph: The Conservatives are on course for a convincing election victory after a new poll for Telegraph showed the party is leading Labour by 12pts in crucial marginal constituencies. On the eve of first ever leaders' television debate, the most comprehensive survey of swing seats since the campaign began showed David Cameron comfortably ahead. 43% of voters questioned said they would vote Conservative, 31% Labour and 20 Lib Dem. On FX, speculation of options barriers at 1.5500 handle, but talks Asian sovereign have been good buyers, bids 1.5400, stops above.

and yes, there was some modest buying in Asia
catnip
Frankfurt, Germany
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Apr 14, 2010 22:15
Agreed after the elections. Then UK will be however to a lower degree in the position in which Eurozone now is ( and will stay).
montmorency
Abingdon, UK
Posts: 610
14 years ago
Apr 14, 2010 21:45
Well you could in a way say that by now all the uncertainty regarding the election has already been "priced in" (whatever that really means) by the market.

However, there is genuine disagreement between the two major parties over what to do about the deficit. The Conservatives are seen as hawkish deficit cutters and spending cutters. The ("New") Labour party are seen as spendthrift deficit spenders. Whichever side wins (if there is a decisive win) is going to have serious difficulties one way or another. If there is a hung parliament (unlikely, but possible) then that is another level of uncertainty, since we haven't had one of those for over thirty years and no one is quite sure how it would play out. I'm guessing that the pound could get quite volatile over the next few weeks, or if not then in the weeks following the election.
catnip
Frankfurt, Germany
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Apr 14, 2010 18:52
I wouldn't even think about shorting GBP. Why not? UK's debt is long term mainly 10y 30 y. Take the structure curve ... and hey, UK can if needed roll over long term maturities in short term 2y or whatever. I don't give much on the election hung parliament and such. Who cares for parliaments?
Only in Eurozone since there are so many of them and one in Brussels, too.
Karan
Singapore, Singapore
Posts: 83
14 years ago
Apr 14, 2010 18:30
ptaczek, i share your sentiments. trust me....i have REALLY ugly shorts on gbp/usd. even im unsure of what is going on, i still feel the greece aid is a joke and so is the whole supposed recovery. there are still way too many underlying fundamental issues that everyone is downplaying. I have no idea what is going on....I asked ashraf about 2/3 hours ago and he says his target for gbp/usd for 1.48 is intact...so confused....
ptaczek
Brno, Czech Republic
Posts: 110
14 years ago
Apr 14, 2010 18:22
@redstone: a moment ago I wrote in the JPY thread in similar vien. The dollar is weak third week now. It started right at the moment we thought it's all roses again. I have a really ugly shorts on GBPUSD and Im not sure my nervous system is strong enough to hold it much longer. If this is a 700pips pullback then the next leg down will be more than impressive. The problem here is the 'IF'. And Im afraid that nobody has any idea right now what's going to happen. Sure I'd be more than happy to see USD strength for next month or two, but ... I don't know - my head is completely empty... no idea.
redstone
bristol, UK
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Apr 14, 2010 17:57
Guys wake up the US is not going to hike interest rates. Why should it ? Cable 140 by end of April. Oh really, seems its heading to 155 to me or maybe im in dream land.
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
14 years ago
Apr 14, 2010 17:35
see my latest INT on GBPUSD. it's breaking above 55-day MA but theirs discord between weekly and daily stochastics.

Stepping back, this is not only limited to GBP but is an overall USD weakness we may be looking at 2-3 week USD retreat.

Ashraf