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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Feb 22, 2010 5:00
Comments: 3119
Posted: Feb 22, 2010 5:00
Comments: 3119
Forum Topic:
Commodity FX (CAD AUD NZD NOK)
Discuss Commodity FX (CAD AUD NZD NOK)
if
world economy recovers significantly
or
China inflation raises further
to compensate for export reduction employment and / or wages must raise so domestic demand growth
well well Dr.Ben always sheds crocodile tears on the weak labor market, the unemployment too high , US wages too low housing deteriorating .... but actually that is the best scenario for the FED. It is deflationary. The FED owns all greenbacks ever printed. FED has no intend of devalutaion.
his son study in cambridge or oxford, i am not sure. but i am sure everyone call him "瓜爹".
i have a solution.
so, i am not quite sure about what catnip said. i will wait and see, and stand still unless have any clear evidence in market.
old rumor, mayor of chongqing said that, "anyone who want to steal food from my plate, i will cut off their paws", and he did...
the german krieg has been made just because germany was living in an enclave. the shift of instability has occured through time and geography back and forth.
few months ago i reencounter a chinese friend and we talked and during the talk i just told him that the central government is gonna boost the inner country. one have to know that what some of us are trying to do is simply gauging datas that has long term application for short term profit.
it takes 10 to 15 years to decide and meet all the prerequisite to build a pipeline for instance. it is the most capital consuming project, budgetarily, fiscally, and above all market conditions.
Broad money supply, or M2, rose last month by 19.5 percent, the fastest gain in six months, the Peoples Bank of China reported yesterday. M2 has surged 55 percent over the past two years and outstanding yuan-denominated loans have climbed to 47.4 trillion yuan, 60 percent more than in November 2008.
I see the day coming when the US says to China it has been really nice to meet you.
advantage also in domestic because the average worke and employee wage is far too low
to suppurt domestic market. If they hike that could be positive for domestic but negative for export. In fact PBOC must hike but will not until theres is no way out. The FED scores again and again. China is indeed a paper tiger. No nation can emerge into an industrial nation without entrepreneurs with social resoonsibility. China has no entrepreneurs only gamblers.
Anyway PPI and CPI and the stubbornees of PBOC send a clear signal China will not drive commodity rally anymore unless they blow up the credit volume even more.
Whatever they do they hit the same wall. Dr.Ben is one of this world's most clever guys.
He maneuvered the US economy right in the middle of a high inflationary China and a big savin' Europe.
China have a variety of potentially destructive problems but it takes lots of time for a very old culture to change. They have made progress with change but we need to be patient and by that I mean many decades rather than months and years.
The world is in an almighty mess even without mentioning religious conflict. It will probably take 20 years yet just to deleverage financial systems. Let's hope the scientists can come to to the rescue in time so new industries can be created. Printing money or QE2 cannot go on forever and the power of the banks over government is a very real problem indeed.
I don't think any G.20 nation can claim to be whiter than thou. All have very real problems. We each need to be producing something useful other than spinning money around in circles. Ultimately the basic laws of nature will take hold unless government comes to its senses.
Read what I wrote again.
Best of luck!