Gold, Oil & Indices (Equity & Bond Indices)

i can never understand idiot chinese officials, why they start this war with their high CPI on meat supply? they want more CPI, or they just want to give US a good excuse?

This is Soc Gen's take on FOMC ...quite reasonable imo
(1) Operation Twist (duration extension): mostly priced in - impact minimal,

(2) Cut interest on excess reserves (IOER currently at 0.25%): possible, but no surprise factor and could backfire (negative impact on domestic banks, money market funds, reduces GSE incentive to lend to banks),

(3) QE3: market upping probability of QE3, but still likely positive impact,

(4) Pledge to keep balance sheet unchanged for a long time. Medium probability - a much cheaper option for the Fed than QE3,

(5) Setting explicit inflation/employment targets: low probability - Fed moving to increased transparency, however cant see Fed giving up discretionary mandate just yet,

(6) Setting explicit GDP targets: a very bold move, much more inflationary - very low probability.

The most likely scenario is Twist + some combination of 2 & 4, with the markets rallying initially whilst debating the real impact and sellers try to fade the move (starting around SPX 1250). If we do get QE3 then clearly 1300 becomes a more attainable target.

As operation twist is already implemented I think FOMC will disappoint . No reason for QE3 is seen. USTsy sell very well. Its all up to EU. I assume Dr.Ben will hint to EU endangers
US economy.

@gunjack, I have only been scalping CL with low confidence trades so not inclined to post analysis. Since the May high it been doing impulse moves down on daily t/f with very protracted rets up along the way. I had been looking for the current ret up to make c.92.45 but its been a pain in the ass :-) Looking more short than long at mo.

according to X this is AL's latest premium gold trade gone very wrong?.. just doesn't make any sense!..

XAUUSD Buy 1815.20 target 1840.00 stop loss 1775.00
buy 18.09.2011 15:30
stopped 19.09.2011 13:12
loss 402 pips

not feeling good for stock, may have a ret next week, or 5th wave down. and if eur keep up, more possibility have 5th wave down.

just feeling, no evidence at all...