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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Feb 22, 2010 5:00
Comments: 8935
Forum Topic:

Gold, Oil & Indices (Equity & Bond Indices)

Discuss Gold, Oil & Indices (Equity & Bond Indices)
 
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DaveO
N.Cornwall, UK
Posts: 5733
13 years ago
Apr 12, 2011 17:49
watching the vix (another internal). It gapped up at the open today but has since almost fully retraced. Not a good sign for serious stocks down day. Also reviewing again the bid/ask delta, its not signalling an 8% true trend day.
DaveO
N.Cornwall, UK
Posts: 5733
13 years ago
Apr 12, 2011 17:41
Its amazing how fib levels are often hit on the nail but as many times as not the precision engineer may be dissapointed. If I project levels at 100% and 127.2% I am perfectly happy if the reaction is somewhere between the two. Often when the 100% plays price might quickly spike through and immediately reverse. If this happens I am not going to quibble about it. Have to make allowances for some mkts not understanding strict discipline. Liken it to teenagers not being members of the human race :-)
DaveO
N.Cornwall, UK
Posts: 5733
13 years ago
Apr 12, 2011 17:28
One internal I am looking at in stocks decline today is bid/ask delta. Right now this is only -222mil, comparitively mild as yet. If it gets to 750 mil to 1 bil by late session I know the decline is serious. (real conviction). This would increase my confidence re deep CL decline probability.
DaveO
N.Cornwall, UK
Posts: 5733
13 years ago
Apr 12, 2011 17:17
Unlikely that the 110.24 pivot high on 60 min t/f was a wave B but nevertheless c'est possibla. If so we would have symmetry at 104.66 or 127.2% ext at 103.13. If it went to 161.8% ext at 101.22 then high prob its not just an ABC corrective. I don't like looking too far ahead, prefer to take one stage at a time.
DaveO
N.Cornwall, UK
Posts: 5733
13 years ago
Apr 12, 2011 17:09
yea, by "take out" I mean overshoot.
Nor
Lemberg, Canada
Posts: 249
13 years ago
Apr 12, 2011 17:06
thanks Dave, but 102.70..your asking for perfection:)...i think it might overshoot that,
like you said shallow rets will be the clue
gl
DaveO
N.Cornwall, UK
Posts: 5733
13 years ago
Apr 12, 2011 16:58
Nor, I am eyeballing the 78.6% at 105.00 next but I suspect will bomb through that and take out the 102.70 low. If it does that I can make some higher probability projections following a decent ret.
DaveO
N.Cornwall, UK
Posts: 5733
13 years ago
Apr 12, 2011 16:54
BigBaby. What books have you read. What real time trading rooms have you experienced. What tech analysis education sites have you subscribed to ???

This site is not geared up for tech analysis education and it is a free site. You get what you pay for --- sometimes---- if lucky.

It usually takes 2 to 3 years to wade through all the garbage out there to identify morsels of real value. gl.
Nor
Lemberg, Canada
Posts: 249
13 years ago
Apr 12, 2011 16:53
whats your target Dave, 102-.50?
DaveO
N.Cornwall, UK
Posts: 5733
13 years ago
Apr 12, 2011 16:47
oops sorry for duplicate post. The site freeked out
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