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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Feb 22, 2010 5:00
Comments: 8936
Forum Topic:

Gold, Oil & Indices (Equity & Bond Indices)

Discuss Gold, Oil & Indices (Equity & Bond Indices)
 
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chloethebull
Canada
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Jan 16, 2011 0:53
@qingyu..i think gold is somewhat limited to the upside. while it will continue to climb upwards of 1500 mayb 1700 but when it gets too crazy the majority of investor will have to say to themselfs how is my investment protected at these levels an that will be key to limited golds upside look where it rallied from 800buk im wayy too scared to buy gold at this level imagine being the guy steppin in @1500-1700 how do i sleep @night lol im sure there will be a better trade out there(safer)maybe shorting the hell outta gold lol:)..lets face it theres alot of power held by the us and theyve been in control for a long time an i don;t see that power going elsewhere any time soon so i mayb early to the party but im hear an waiting:)..gl this week guys :)
Qingyu
manchester, UK
Posts: 1763
14 years ago
Jan 15, 2011 19:14
china have huge foreign currency reserves, stagflation would be more likely.

also i dont think gold is over, inflation and stagflation both support higher gold.
DaveO
N.Cornwall, UK
Posts: 5733
14 years ago
Jan 15, 2011 19:03
Wish I had the indepth comprehension of correlations enjoyed by @Catnip but fortunately my charts pretty well tell me how to trade to make enough bread. I agree that gold has been out of whack and no way would I be a stocks investor.

My gut feeling with china bubbles is they will burst and we shall see blood all over the place. Nothing sophisticated, just life's experiences. Also have gut feeling usd will rocket at some point but timing always difficult to predict.
catnip
Frankfurt, Germany
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Jan 15, 2011 16:33
I think I found a solution. The whole stuff is only to press China to buy more UST.
Weakening USD and raising EUR reduces pressure on yuan appreciation , no rate hike,
inflation explodes despite of reserve requirements. That puts China banks on the edge because
of more and more non performing mortgages. That eats up reserves. Thus yuan liquidity drains
and China enters stagflation as exports to austerity stricken eurozone won't raise neither will US exports raise. China gets crunched. Their way was as wrong as Russia's. No domestic markets
established only construction.
Qingyu
manchester, UK
Posts: 1763
14 years ago
Jan 15, 2011 15:04
chloe, gold fall as usdx fall, do you think that normal?
chloethebull
halifax, Canada
Posts: 1183
14 years ago
Jan 15, 2011 14:46
@daveo, i know the opposite can be said about the usd forming its own bearish double top..lol..i guess time will tell how it plays out .but it kinda makes sence for the dollar to rally fresh profits be made an profits be taken off golds runup along with s&p an oil..at some point going long has to be very risky @current levels with the fundel day/day volitility still very explosive.any ways a case can be made for both sides of the fence an i realize when applying the words"makes sence" is probly not the best thing to do when talkn about markets as they tend to catch us off gaurd an do the opposite:(..gl guys see ya all in london:)
chloethebull
halifax, Canada
Posts: 1183
14 years ago
Jan 15, 2011 14:30
nice tripple top in th gold chart with a test an fall through of the 1360(1355) level put that with another wekly close below the 1377 level looks like there a exit from the gold trade albeit a orderly exit, next stop looks like 1320s after that not much support until we hit 1250.which could explain the orderly exit as the bulls want the key support levels thourghly tested b4 free fall to 1250:)...chris vermeulen article on gold&usd i found very interesting an agree with as ive been sayn for awhile that 2011 could prove to be the yr the usx rallys.also read a report this morning on aususd an it was saying it could be time to sell the aususdhttp://bit.ly/e5bxax (seeking alpha) hopefully that will take u to the link..ok guys time to get long the usd an see if this plays out gl next week:)
catnip
Frankfurt, Germany
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Jan 15, 2011 12:42
Bond yields fell....but yesterday a slight uptick in bond rates and raising overnight interest
killed highly speculative stocks one by one.... especially those related to coal mining and exploration, and also some hi tech stocks, and also many rare earth stocks.
I consider this very interesting. The S&P may raise further driven by stocks with solid earnings base , VIX may fall further, but the concern liquidity crunch is back.
Qingyu
manchester, UK
Posts: 1763
14 years ago
Jan 15, 2011 11:51
theoretically spx500 could fall from 1330/1300/1293, and that money could inject in gold/oil...

wow, that make sense why gold/oil was falling recently.
catnip
Frankfurt, Germany
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Jan 14, 2011 22:11
The relevance is a number between 0 and 1 . If there is plenty of roaming liquidity the number is low. Liquidity is determned by several rate and rate spreads, bond rate 2y 10 y spread OIS spread LIBOR etc. In October 2007 the situation was similar to now. From then on the significance rose and became close to 1 in december 2007 , the crash of 2008 would have happened anyway. The reason is, only idiots buy stocks with good old fashioned own money,
the bigger investors buy on credit. And they rake in profits before liquidity fizzles out.
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