Gold, Oil & Indices (Equity & Bond Indices)

asad
with this mini congestion one can expect CL at 89.10

Gunjack,

What's your take on CL? I'm contemplating going short around here: 85 -> 90, I believe, was purely due to 'snow euphoria' over the last week! We got ample O&G running - Russia also seems okay w/ Ukraine this time *lol* - so nothing to worry, except speculation.

P.S. You're RIGHTLY the one on this Forum to inform us WHAT Goldman targeted for CL and HOW they got it right... ;)

I have tested technical analysis algorithms. It is immediately clear that all of technical analysis
is application of rules on datasets so it is "Turing computable" and can be completely cast in always halting algorithm. "Experience" ist just more rules and more conditions. All this is single valued logic and always decidable. With some algebra additional to logic the program can also "not decide" either long or short and advise don't trade this asset.
EW has the fundamental problem EWs cannot have a begin in the finite so identifying EWs is
gut feeling and intuitive.
It is obvious that this approach cannot work for fx.
For ex. EURUSD rises if
the absolute strength of
a EUR falls USD falls ( but "more" than EUR)
b EUR const USD falls
c EUR rises USD const
d EUR rises USD rises ( but "less" than EUR)
e EUR rises USD falls

these cases can each be assigned an object from which the risk of long trade can be computed.
From this value the "target" can be computed.
We have even before NFP case e and this is amazingly constant trend thus follows prelim target is 1348 by mon london close

Gunjack, Stockcharts.com do a pretty good service for starting with classical chart analysis which is probably the right place to start to catch all the basics. Both John Murphy and Arthur Hill provide regular intra week analysis with videos in the paid subscriber service. I think Arthur Hill is an especially good analyst although Murphy is the more famed. I think they both also run their own sites and services.

I have been through most methodologies including Gann. In the end I found my own stuff evolved with what I felt the most comfortable with but what I do does not necessarily suit everyone by any means. Looking back over the years what we (most traders) do is to research an enormous amount of "stuff" and discard about 98% of it to the bin. The remaining nuggets of pure gold are moulded into our very own trading arsenal. What Elder would call the 5 or 6 bullets in his clip.

I am an EW nut because it totally fascinates me. After practising it for 4 years in the 90's and tearing my hair out with the WRONG attitude I grew to hate it. I took a 3 year rest from EW but came back to it with a totally different attitude. If I were climbing my particular curve again I would study in the following order.

Classical chart analysis inc price action, candlesticks etc.
Basic grounding in EW patterns. (I chose Robert Miner of Dynamic Trading)
Fibonnaci retracements, extensions and projections (price and time) (Suggest Carolyn Boroden or Mark Braun)
Symmetry studies (Carolyn Boroden)
Return to EWA for deeper study and correct application of what you learnt with fibs and symmetry.
Markey Internals. (there are books on breadth and volume studies)
MP (Market Profile) Study of volume over time (Suggest Dalton for reasonably concise intro)
Intermarket analysis. Need I suggest someone for this ? !!!!!

All these studies can be integrated to providev a powerful methodology to suit your own individual trade plan. IMO the difference between an experienced trader who struggles to get past consistent break-even and an experienced trader who has become consistently profitable lies in trade management (and strict money management).

Fundamental analysis is notoriously unreliable because we are subject to surprises and the unknown so it makes a lot of sense for you to "manage" your trades using technicals. Whether you play 3 units or 5 units you need logical levels for lightening load in any given move on any given timeframe. You need a logical level for your stop loss placed in the market at time of entry. The fundamental bias can be aligned with a technical entry level and from theronin the trade is managed using technicals.

Hope this answers your question :-) and good trading to you.

watch sugar wheat cotton ....