Forum > View Topic
by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Feb 22, 2010 5:00
Comments: 8935
Posted: Feb 22, 2010 5:00
Comments: 8935
Forum Topic:
Gold, Oil & Indices (Equity & Bond Indices)
Discuss Gold, Oil & Indices (Equity & Bond Indices)
gasoline futures are anticipating that, run up quite high.
How will effect the China Hike the markets and Gold and DXY ?
which drops exponentially. Likewise, drilling gets exponentially expensive. Taking a look at gazprom.
In a typical Russian manner Gazprom brags we have reserves for the 21st century. But fact is the output drops and gazprom buys nat gas from where it can. The assessment of reserves of nat gas is in fact from Stalin era. It could be Henry hub spot price could skyrocket pretty soon , about end of summer.
gold bullions but a barrage of open interest that should prevent gold future raising above 1183.
Second there is far more money in Gold ETFs than there is physical gold. Only very few gold ETFs are backed by physical gold most are by gold futures and that is the problem that makes gold future difficult to predict because this is sort of a function that has itself as argument - that smells a bit of chaos. Imo eurozone uncertainties triggered inflow in GLD but I do not see necessity of inflation hedge. In fact UST 10 y yield continues to drop, there is no surge of hiring in full time jobs and no increase of wages. Above PBOC and FED are tightening i.e. employ means of withdrawal of excess liquidity. I think the main driver of gold is eurozone. In eurozone we should indeed see high risk of inflation because of the incredible large civil servants staff being excessively overpaid.
I Just got short myself, and I am quiet bearish, targeting sub 1100... That being said, from an Elliot Wave perspective, Gold looks to be putting in an ending diagonal into the 1183 ish resistance. There is a FIB level right there as well... I see Gold finishing a B wave correction with an anticipated 5 wave impulsive C wave lower... I have been baffled by Gold alltogether, as I don't find the value in it others do... If you can't use a commodity in production, what good is it? (just making a point here, I do understand Golds inflationary hedge position, as well as a safe haven...)
I am also bearish in US equities. The SPX may have one more push to 1226-1230, but otherwise I see a major failure looming, and at least a test down to sub 1160. Pretty clear 5 wave up off 666 low... I have to now anticipate a decent wave 2 or B correction...
Ashraf- you have mentioned previously that equity selloffs
can nudge a selloff in Gold as well- I would love to hear your perspective on US equities and Gold!
I agree totally, I sold out of ng in January and looking to buy back in soon, hopefullly lower.
I owned ngsp last time but found that it did not reflect the spot price due to contango, so this time I may simply go long on cfd's or spreadbet.
Do you see ngas etf coming back in line with the spot price?
Last year I bought ngsp at .30pence a share when ngas was $3 on the spot price , it is now .25 pence and ng is currently hovering around $4.
Any thoughts on this would be much appreciated.
Thanks
Juno
Note that the Obama administration's plans of offshore drilling have also taken a hit due to this latest oil spillover. Remember oil went down about three dollars when the drilling was first announced? So why not go up three?!
The Cartel has decided. Enough.
Juno, the ONLY chance i'd give NG of EVER going back to $3 is if the shale gas project is a ballistic success! But there's more there than meets the eye. NG is metals' equivalent of silver - highly valuable & underrated. It's the poor man's crude! It's out of ratio w/ crude...and just like silver (w/ gold) would love to get the ratio w/ crude right.
You'll be surprised how much NG is set to pump...
Asad