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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Feb 22, 2010 5:00
Comments: 8935
Forum Topic:

Gold, Oil & Indices (Equity & Bond Indices)

Discuss Gold, Oil & Indices (Equity & Bond Indices)
 
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DaveO
N.Cornwall, UK
Posts: 5733
11 years ago
Feb 21, 2013 12:17
In reply to cat0nip's post
yeah, good call cat, looking pretty bearish now on daily and weekly.

Interesting chart patterns. Looks like ABC corrective up from the
535 Oct 2011 low which made typical symmetry target 750 to 801 zone. Taking low to high 2008 to 2011 at 848 the 50% retracement level at 504 with 100% pattern symmetry below at 464. Above 778 would invalidate.
DaveO
N.Cornwall, UK
Posts: 5733
11 years ago
Feb 21, 2013 12:04
George, I keep checking data on crude. My continuous symbol is on April contract now.
cat0nip
Frankfurt, Germany
Posts: 1632
11 years ago
Feb 21, 2013 11:20
In reply to cat0nip's post
Once again Russian long players in Palladium went belly up.
It was exactly the same bull trap pattern that was used on crude.
They'll never ever learn
DaveO
N.Cornwall, UK
Posts: 5733
11 years ago
Feb 21, 2013 1:41
Today the VIX retraced the last 10 trading days in one fell swoop and NYSE down volume a pleasure to behold.
DaveO
N.Cornwall, UK
Posts: 5733
11 years ago
Feb 21, 2013 1:23
Still the same preferred count, daily chart ABC completes at the 127.2% ext so expecting reversal to new highs above 98.24. Below 93.92 would invalidate the count.
DaveO
N.Cornwall, UK
Posts: 5733
11 years ago
Feb 20, 2013 16:27
Crude 93.93 ext target just hit. Let's see if it holds
Qingyu
manchester, UK
Posts: 1763
11 years ago
Feb 20, 2013 10:55
from tea leaf reading, silver head to 27, gold to 1550-60.

cant understand why aussie still hold... :(
DaveO
N.Cornwall, UK
Posts: 5733
11 years ago
Feb 19, 2013 17:19
No, I wasn't forecasting a deep correction on crude. I just thought the corrective pattern which started on the 30th Jan high, made a lower high on the 13th Feb, should complete at 94.83 or 93.93 before heading north again to take out the Jan high. I maybe wrong, the correction might have finished at the 94.97 low on the 11th Feb.

I am not going to predict SPX termination, first we need a sign of reversal. Fading an uptrend is a mugs game. I just feel the NYSE has been manipulated these last few months. The mkt will tip its hat when time to consider shorts.
cat0nip
Frankfurt, Germany
Posts: 1632
11 years ago
Feb 18, 2013 12:09
In reply to DaveO's post
P&F shows bulls getting fatigue....NSA100 being some indicator for
consumer spending . P&F is bearish für dow and s&p.
DaveO
N.Cornwall, UK
Posts: 5733
11 years ago
Feb 18, 2013 1:24
Referring once again to investor complacency indicators for the NYSE at all time highs a major divergence can be seen in the Nasdaq 100 index for tech stocks ($NDX). In addition the NYSE internals I monitor have been less than satisfactory for the last several months. Often an alert that all is not well.

While the SPX is only 56 handles away from it's 2007 all time high, the Dow also very close to its 2007 all time high the Nas 100 is way below it's 2000 all time high, still testing the 50% level at 2806. It is also lagging well below its September 2012 high of 2878.

Looking at the weekly chart there could be an H&S formation with significant bearish divergence on the RSI, MACD and momentum indicators. Left shoulder to head to right shoulder. We need to see this divergence resolve to the upside quite soon and catch up with the other main indices or the outcome for all the indices will be bearish.
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