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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Feb 22, 2010 5:00
Comments: 8936
Forum Topic:

Gold, Oil & Indices (Equity & Bond Indices)

Discuss Gold, Oil & Indices (Equity & Bond Indices)
 
DaveO
N.Cornwall, UK
Posts: 5733
12 years ago
Feb 12, 2013 23:54
In reply to cat0nip's post
Yes the chart looks good. I been asking myself why I bother to trade currencies with all the EU nonsense attached every day since their saga commenced. The charts don't even make good patterns most of the time. More than enough to trade without currencies.
cat0nip
Frankfurt, Germany
Posts: 1632
12 years ago
Feb 12, 2013 22:19
Palladium appears a more hot and possibly highly unsafe play than gold. But why? First it is the biggest producer the russian Norilsk Nickel who is artificially shortening production. Next it is imho unfounded rumors about whopping demand. Rumors that russian oligarchs drive futures up while on the other side COT is strong short. Thus palladium could as well rally to 1000 or drop to 600 ..400 . A long squeeze is rarely mentioned but it is desastrous. A similar situation was with crude. Goldman called 150/bbl the russian Gazprom called for 200 and crude dropped from 130 to 40. Long squeeze. The russian oligarchs went belly up Putin bailed them out and GS raked big profits.
I think this year huge profits can be made with Palladium trade, either way.
DaveO
N.Cornwall, UK
Posts: 5733
12 years ago
Feb 12, 2013 21:59
OK George, CL lookin quite bullish now.

Gold tested the support drawn from 30th May low through 4th Jan low. Small bounce showing daily hammer candle. Its also sat on the 100WMA. I feel low confidence for long trades.
DaveO
N.Cornwall, UK
Posts: 5733
12 years ago
Feb 11, 2013 18:51
Alaidi coin tossing on gold, issued long and short call, take yer pick :-)
DaveO
N.Cornwall, UK
Posts: 5733
12 years ago
Feb 10, 2013 19:54
Yes the scientific revolution is the one thing that provides hope for the future of mankind but I fear the politicians will screw it all :-)
DaveO
N.Cornwall, UK
Posts: 5733
12 years ago
Feb 10, 2013 19:34
Bill Kaye talks about the gold conspiracy theory. You can download his latest MP3 on the subject. It seems that Kyle Bass is not the only successfull hedge fund manager punting this "shocking" suspicion.
http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2013/1/29_Exclusive__Coming_Short_Squeeze_In_Gold_To_Shock_The_World.html
DaveO
N.Cornwall, UK
Posts: 5733
12 years ago
Feb 10, 2013 19:05
I used to follow Prechter back in the late 90's up to mid 00's. He has always been perma bear on the macro picture and no doubt he has made a good business from appealing to traders who saw the 2000 tech bubble coming and then witnessed the Greenspan manipulated equity market from the 2002 low to the 2007 high.

What infuriated me is the various analysts he employed to write the daily, weekly and monthly reports allowed their EW analysis to be influenced by their employer's (Prechter's) bias which was almost always bearish in the face of EW pointing north. Even gold charts were obviously incorrectly labelled sometimes. I used to write to them pointing out they had omitted an important alternate count but I was wasting my time.

I always say that Prechter must be responsible for the most novice traders burning their accounts than any other self appointed expert analyst (or charlatan) out there.

The difficult facet is that imho Prechter is right on the macro picture where he is predicting a 120 year super cycle high. All the fundamentals over the last 20 years point to this scenario and it is obvious it will be triggered by a global financial meltdown, the likes of which the world fully deserves. When it comes to exact timing of a large degree super cycle high a few years here or there are nothing. Impossible to get the timing accurate imo.

The financial world ultimately has to implode with so many ponzi schemes running along. This is just common sense, you don't need degrees in economics to see the future. Much of what Prechter writes makes sense but I have no doubt he capitalises on sessationalism to provide his daily bread.
DaveO
N.Cornwall, UK
Posts: 5733
12 years ago
Feb 9, 2013 20:41
George, the SPX 2007 high was 1576, not 1565.

Someone sent me Prechter analysis today because he has recently been calling a mega cycle high---recommending maximum weighting on shorts. The evidence he presents is difficult to dispute but we all know how early he can be on timing. His forecast for the next few years is for Dow to lose 10,000 pts, gold, silver and metals down, commodities down and more surprisinly bonds down. Perhaps not surprising in the light of bonds doing well in a genuinely healthy global economy and not so well in a poor economy.

I must admit I am worried about my gold count. It simply hasn't taken off north as one might have expected for that particular count. Crude also has been range trading for the last 2 years. Volumes generally have been exceedingly poor and "invester sentiment" now at all time complacency highs.
DaveO
N.Cornwall, UK
Posts: 5733
12 years ago
Feb 8, 2013 1:35
yes on 120 min looks like could be 5 down from the 98.24 high to 95.07 low (W.A ?)
DaveO
N.Cornwall, UK
Posts: 5733
12 years ago
Feb 7, 2013 17:47
what's in your mind George ?