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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Feb 22, 2010 5:00
Comments: 901
Forum Topic:

CHF

Discuss CHF
 
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Helmut
Germany
Posted Anonymously
13 years ago
Aug 27, 2011 11:10
@cat, if the SNB runs out of money why is this strengthens the CHF?

I agree, at present there is no action, however there is a strong CHF short trend for the last two weeks. Even Friday morning, during the DAX selloffs the CHF was not getting stronger. The 500 bln russian oligarchs deposits are higher than the CH BIP. Maybe you can explain in more detail why you expect a return the EUR/CHF parity.

Anyways if the direction changes, I change my position. I have taken the profit Friday and keep a a quarter of the original smaller position EUR/CHF long.

PS: I am still a beginner in the FX markets, I am just trading the CHF because it is logical to me that CH cannot work EUR:CHF one to one rate, this will kill the export industry.
Qingyu
manchester, UK
Posts: 1763
13 years ago
Aug 27, 2011 10:29
so you meant they hold 500bln not only cant profit from that but also have to pay interest.

how it could be?
cat0nip
Frankfurt, Germany
Posts: 1632
13 years ago
Aug 27, 2011 10:10
Good point. That reaffrims the private swiss banks cannot tax deposits as they would run out of capital. And the SNB is bankrupt anyway.
Qingyu
manchester, UK
Posts: 1763
13 years ago
Aug 27, 2011 10:07
UBS
Qingyu
manchester, UK
Posts: 1763
13 years ago
Aug 27, 2011 10:07
cat, if SB got 500bln, why they beg from ICBC. i got pic.
cat0nip
Frankfurt, Germany
Posts: 1632
13 years ago
Aug 27, 2011 9:31
I stay short with options on EURCHF knocout level 1.19.
Its all words of mouth no action. Remember russian oligarchs alone have CHF deposits of more than 500 bln. All tax evasion, money laundry. They are scared to death should deposits be taxed. But of course there will never be a tax on deposits.
jacek
Melbourne, Australia
Posts: 2579
13 years ago
Aug 27, 2011 5:08
hey we have all been there.. one way or another.. the real trick now is not to try to get it all back too quickly!!!.. and stops/hedges are paramount.. otherwise is too much of a gamble.. and casinos are better for that..
sydneyjames
Sydney, Australia
Posts: 348
13 years ago
Aug 27, 2011 3:04
chill dude, tats why u have to b ur boss. tats why i trade cuz i dont hav to listen to anybody.
FXHandler
Norway
Posts: 195
13 years ago
Aug 27, 2011 1:01
Helmut, yes I agree so much.
You should tell Alaidi this.... The one that told me he didn't see a big decline in CHF/NOK when it was at 7.4-----and EUR/CHF at around 1.08.....
Told me to short EUR instead. Thanks to him, I lost 200.000 NOK and more to come probably.
How is his EUR/USD short going now? Huh? Still rising, I guess...
FUCK I am mad now!

Never listen to this guy again!
Helmut
Hannover, Germany
Posts: 24
13 years ago
Aug 26, 2011 20:35
looks like that cats EUR/CHF short have been grilled today, I was able to benefit from it by just jumping on the big move this afternoon. I am still confident that Switzerland has no other option, they need to get the CHF down, otherwise the CH export industry goes down.

I don't know how the discussed Euro/CHF binding should work, however they will not do this for 1.18, I believe 1.25 is needed to keep the export industry in business.

I stay long over the weekend, in case the push it again just before market close as last time.
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