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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Feb 22, 2010 5:00
Comments: 2338
Forum Topic:

USD

Discuss USD
 
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Carlco
bristol, UK
Posts: 151
14 years ago
Aug 6, 2010 22:52
i don't think the US job figures are that bad considering the past few months have included several thousand temporary consensus workers, that have been skewing the data.
and, as FT says, 'More encouraging components of the jobs report included the continued strength of manufacturing payrolls and increases in the average workweek as well as hourly earnings which bullish economists pointed to as signs that companies are on the cusp of a wave of new hires.'
catnip
Frankfurt, Germany
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Aug 6, 2010 19:55
btw i work with dynamic covariances not with correlation .. correlation is the integral of covariance

this aside the bloodless thin number of new jobs created in private industry sector shows clearly
deflation is not a remote possibility it is HERE. If total income from jobs remains subdued or is even waning it is utter nonsense to warn of inflation.

Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
14 years ago
Aug 6, 2010 18:01
Carlco, just when we start getting comfortable with these correlations, they begin to break. and it's our responsibility to see the shifts and understand them. The period between FOMC & Labour Day Holiday will be thin volumes and lots of unexplained moves.

Ashraf
Carlco
bristol, UK
Posts: 151
14 years ago
Aug 6, 2010 17:54
thankyou for being so patient with me ashraf, im really struggling to try and understand the intermarket dynamics of the past week, i feel next week / month could be a really invaluable learning exercise.
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
14 years ago
Aug 6, 2010 17:43
Carlco, i said that yesterday (USD will not be saved by risk aversion). which suggests that even if stocks extend losses or remain neutral at current leve, then we might see EURUSD edging higher. Actually we might also a see a break of the OIL-STOCKS correlation and see oil crawl back above 85. AGAIN TO CLARIFY, what i mean here is that USDX to lose more with stocks having MODEST losses or simply consolidate.

Ashraf
Carlco
bristol, UK
Posts: 151
14 years ago
Aug 6, 2010 17:38
wow 13280 got tested alright, now dipped below @13270ish , 133 for monday maybe? im not good with decouplings of correlation, i know ashraf you are a master at it, could we a reduced correlation heading forward into risk aversion against a weakening S&P??
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
14 years ago
Aug 6, 2010 13:12
IDEAL NFP SCENARIO FOR THE EURO (worst scenario for USD in favour of AUD, GBP, CHF and CHF) would be a US jobs report that neither excessively negative for risk appetite nor unambiguously strong to alter market expectations of a possible easing from the Fed. In this case, we could see EURUSD regain $1.3220 for a fresh retest of $1.3280.


Ashraf
Qiman
United States
Posts: 237
14 years ago
Aug 5, 2010 18:36
"and dont try to be a hero and draw grand conclusions at every twist and trun of the market."

Very true words, those! The markets are so complex, sometimes reasons and directions are fairly obvious, but there is also randomness.
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
14 years ago
Aug 5, 2010 18:31
JOB REPORTS that were unanimously negtv for economy proved negatve for $USDX & vice versa regardless of what stocks did.

So if we do get a UNANIMOUSLY disappointing US jobs report i.e. RISINg unemp rate and FALLING payrolls and SLOWING private payrolls, then USD will end lower after initial whipsaws.

Payroll days are usually very volatile so be careful.

and dont try to be a hero and draw grand conclusions at every twist and trun of the market.

Ashraf
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
14 years ago
Aug 5, 2010 18:27
partisan, i was referring to today and tomorrow's job reports, meaning that USD will remain pressured despite any disappointing figures.

Ashraf
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