USD

just hope this eu disintergrates soon an leaves us all in peace who votes for these suckers anyway. answer. nobody

Error correction, I placed it under the Dollar topic, obviously! I tried to paste the link, but the forum software wouldn't take it, it is on CNS.

US and China relation is very in trouble... i wait china reaction on rates or directly in the market

Dear Ashraf ,

Do you still think GOLD will reach 1330 USD without any pullback ?

Thanks alot

THE WALL STREET JOURNAL





Waning Recovery Fuels Global Uncertainty

By MARK WHITEHOUSE, MARCUS WALKER AND JOANN S. LUBLIN
Of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL


The global recovery is still on track, but it's looking increasingly likely to be a long slog for much of the developed world.

Just over a year after the recovery started, its initial vigor has abruptly subsided, thrusting the world into a new period of uncertainty. Hopes of a U.S.-led recovery have faded as American consumers retrench. Bursts of growth in Japan and Germany are waning or expected to do so. China and other big developing nations are still growing strongly, but at a slower rate than they were not long ago.

"We were waiting for the second stage of the rocket, and it just fizzled out," says Ethan Harris, head of developed economics research at Bank of America Merrill Lynch in New York.

Two early boosters of the recovery -- stimulus spending by governments and inventory rebuilding by businesses -- are fading fast. Policy makers have limited options for providing further stimulus. The big question is whether, and when, consumer spending and business investment will pick up the slack.

So far, the evidence is mixed. The burgeoning ranks of consumers in developing economies could provide a boost. But companies in the U.S. and Europe remain reluctant to do the kind of hiring needed to fuel a revival of consumer spending.

"I don't think anything positive is going to happen this year," says Carol Bartz, chief executive of Internet company Yahoo Inc., which hasn't increased its staff in the past couple of quarters. "Unless the U.S. settles down, the globe can't settle down."

Reflecting the uncertainty, most countries' stock markets are well below their peaks in the spring. The Global Dow index, which tracks the performance of 200 blue-chip companies world-wide, closed at 1871.81 Friday, down 10.3% from its April high of 2087.12.

The dominant outlook for the global economy: A long period of lackluster growth, with little progress in bringing down unemployment in the hardest-hit advanced economies such as the U.S., Ireland and Spain. Some parts of the world most likely will do fine. But the chances of a much better outcome have become more remote, while the risk that things could get worse is significant.

Here are three scenarios for the global economy over the coming year:

Feeble Growth

In recent weeks, data from around the world reveal a growth downshift. Companies that had been rushing to restock their inventories are now ordering only what they need to meet existing demand, affecting the entire global supply chain.

A measure of business activity compiled by J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. fell to 53.9 in August, above the 50 mark that signals growth but below the April peak of 57.7. Growth in world exports slowed to an annualized rate of 7.4% in this year's first half, down from a spectacular 47.5% in last year's second half.

At Duke Energy Corp., which supplies electricity to many manufacturers in the Midwest and Southeast, Chief Executive Jim Rogers says that despite an initial rebound, he doesn't expect industrial sales to "claw back" to prerecession levels until 2014. Over the past 30 years, he says, "there has never been a recession where the recovery has been so anemic as this one."

The stalling growth comes as policy makers are curtailing stimulus spending or, in the case of China and other Asian countries, tightening credit to avoid overheating. Economists at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. estimate that, in the U.S., the declining flow of government money will subtract about one-half percentage point from annualized growth in the three quarters to come, and more later.

In Europe, governments from Greece to the United Kingdom have begun cutting spending and raising taxes to reduce budget deficits. Even fiscally stronger Germany plans to trim spending next year. The belt tightening is likely to slow growth in the 16-nation euro zone economy, which grew at a brisk 3.9% annualized rate in the second quarter thanks to strong domestic demand and stellar German exports.

"The elephant in the room is fiscal tightening," says Julian Callow, an economist at Barclays Capital in London.

The European economy tends to lag behind the U.S., which suggests more weakness to come. German exports and new industrial orders fell in July, a first sign that the slowdown in world trade is affecting Europe's biggest economy.

Nancy McKinstry, the American-born chief executive of Wolters Kluwer NV, a global information-services company based in the Netherlands, says she expects the tepid growth to last through next year. "It will really be into 2012 and 2013 before we see things recover on a global scale," she says.

In the U.S., it is consumers who are retrenching. U.S. retail sales