EURUSD 1.1851 |
USDJPY 111.52 |
GBPUSD 1.3772 |
AUDUSD 0.7485 |
USDCAD 1.2406 |
GBPJPY 153.59 |
EURJPY 132.15 |
AUDJPY 83.48 |
CADJPY 89.86 |
Silver 26.23 |
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I think the fed dont mind some weakness but they would fear a run on the currency.
We are currently at an extremely critical juncture for the USD index. If we break below 75 the dollar is in trouble and can possibly fall further towards 70. We are within 5% from a decade low for this index. You know what that means...a HUGE dollar rally will arise pretty soon. but the timing of this is tough but will be triggered on value. 2010 could be an absolute cracker for the dollar. but in the meantime play it safe as a reversal could come pretty soon.
i think there could be further strength for the euro against dollar in the short term.
But now it's reachin the point where the good weakness may be happening too far fast and very little out there in way ofi fundamentals to support it.
Ashraf
At the risk of sounding cynical, don't you guys feel that the US is sitting quietly, enjoying this weakness in the USD? Afterall, it's pretty good business if your currency is weak! And then, foreign funding is coming into US stock markets. Who cares if your creditors are unhappy, as long as you're minting money.
I have NEVER seen the US sit this quietly on an issue as it is now. In fact, it may be helping maintain the weakness. What do you think?
Asad
Any pullbacks I would use to short.
Breaking 1.0590 and now likely to break 1.0300.
Below 1.0300 I can't see any major support on the weekly charts till we reach the Psychological barrier of 1.000 - once broken it is a free fall to 0.97.
Only a major fundamental shift in sentiment - crashing stocks & oil, and return to substantial USD strength can stop this. The other factor in CADs favour is the Canadian economy has clearly started adding jobs - more strength.
The only thing I can see which can derail this fall in the short term is the COT data which is at a CAD bullish extreme - 88% of positions are CAD long, which could lead to a pullback - but these extreme positions can remain so for quite some time.
Ashraf
Wellcome Pipster ,
StockTwits it is a very good tool ( and looks cool ) but ...there is many and various ideas...so watch out
Just got the stocktwits desktop... wow looks great and I can see any entry from Ashraf as it occurs.
Any newcomer I would highly recommend subscribing to the free newsletter, getting the stocktwits desktop, and also follow Ashraf on Twitter. With these you shouldn't miss a thing. ( I feel like i'm stalking him)
(Sometimes I wonder how he can be so accurate on the pullbacks/ capping of price and overall understanding of the world economy)
He is truly blessed