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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Jan 1, 2011 0:30
Comments: 1846
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This thread was started in response to the :

Ashraf's Book: Currency Trading and Intermarket Analysis

Ashraf's Book: Currency Trading and Intermarket Analysis
 
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Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
15 years ago
Oct 12, 2009 1:53
spec, your $1.30 forecast for GBPUSD may sound bold. but then again.. the required cuts in UK govt spending and the need to increase QE has some ugly implications for GBP. it could be the dynamic that stops USD from tanking fast.

Ashraf
speculator
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Oct 12, 2009 1:45
ok fair enough ashraf,

regarding $i see 1.46 by year end and 1.30 2010 q1 it will certainly retest 2009 lows but will take some time as this time it will be a gradual decline as we are unlikely to get a risk aversion shock any time soon. but u never know!
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
15 years ago
Oct 12, 2009 1:35
spec, i expect USD to have a bounce but i would NOT call it a bull market. EVEN the dollar rally of 2008-09 for me is NOT a bull market because all it was; a CORRECTIVE move in a 7-year bear market (see the MONTHLY USDX chart page 248 of my book). if u want to rebut by saying the 2008-09 rally was more than 15% therefore it qualifies as BULL market, that is fine, but i would not use that terminology for FX.

again, USD bear market started in 2002 (2005 rebound was corrective and so was 2008 and so could be the next one).

im talking about USDX here, not against GBP

Ashraf
speculator
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Oct 11, 2009 23:56
moe we are currently in a dollar bull market which will last at least 6 months months. risk taking and qe have moved dollar down for now but dollar will regain much strength into 2010 but not against all currencies. the dollar will regain against its greatest losers since 2000.
houram
Vancouver, Canada
Posts: 55
15 years ago
Oct 11, 2009 20:49
Moe, I think it depends how fast things will unfold during Q4. A fast move is usually followed by a fast retracement but a slower move usually continues over a longer period of time. In my opinion it could continue to Q2 of 2010. The reason I am saying this is because the world economy can not pick up as fast as anticipated. The stimulus money is used up and a consumer driven economy will take time. The next wave of foreclosures in the USA is what I am afraid of. This is my prediction and it could be different from most of the predictions.
Moe
Sharjah, United Arab Emirates
Posts: 50
15 years ago
Oct 11, 2009 20:39
Spec / Houram

Although I don't believe on dollar strength, but I have to agree with you that the dollar has only one way to go which is u and as mentioned by Houram after the earning season is finished, but the question is how long will a dollar rally last???
houram
Vancouver, Canada
Posts: 55
15 years ago
Oct 11, 2009 20:31
I agree with spec that the Dollar will move up, the maximum time I give the USD to decline is 3-4 weeks when the earnings season is pretty much over. May be it will turn around next week, who knows, but the only way is up since almost everybody is already short dollar.
speculator
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Oct 11, 2009 20:16
dollar has only one way up from here against sterling and yen
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
15 years ago
Oct 11, 2009 15:32
chloe, prechter thinks USD will start rallying about now. again, he has been wrong in 2003 and 2005 but spectacularly accurate in 2009 about stocks.

US WILL NOT and CANNOT raise fed funds by 25 bps. although fedfunds target is at 0.25%, the REAL FED FUNDS RATE IS NOW AT ABOUT - 3%. yes minus. theyre now startingt to reduce liquidity via very small reverse repos.

DOLLAR WILL NOT SHOW ANY DECENT REBOUND UNLESS STOCKS COME DOWN.. at least for now.

Mondo. yes. but for now we could see 92

Ashraf
speculator
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Oct 10, 2009 18:31
My top long term shorts against USD

1 - CHF
2 - CAD
3 - NZD
4 - AUD

You should make a tidy profit in the longer term. If i had the above physical currencies i would buy dollars pretty much now as dollar is bottoming. Do not be fooled!

Also recommend depending or risk tollerance and margin to have a long term position as above for around 6 - 12 months.

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