Archived IMT (2010.07.29)

S&P500 barely closed above its 200-day MA on Tuesday before falling Wednesday and Today. Daily stochastics show a double top, which in effect can be seen as bearish divergence. Fridays release of US Q2 GDP is expected +2.5% from 2.7% in Q1, but several economists allowing for an undershoot of 2.0%. Whether a disappointing figure would be USD negative will not only depend on the performance of equities, but also on the German-US 10 year yield differential, whose technicals indicate prolonged gains in favour of Germany (EUR). Also of significance is the technical significance of $1.3125-30 in EURUSD, which is presented by the 38% retracement of the euros decline from the Nov highs to the June lows, as well as the resistance on the reverse H&S formation.