Archived IMT (2010.07.30)

A preferred scenario for the euro would be a softer US Q2 GDP reading than Q1 but not to the extent of triggering sharp sell-off in equities. Such a reading would be between 2.0% and 2.5%. A figure below 2.0% would be too negative for stocks and risk appetite to the extent of standing in the way of a EURUSD rally above 1.31. Subsequent downside could break below 1.29 but beware of London Close activity as we close the month. ALSO WATCH YEN, which could extend strength in event of disappointing figures.