Intraday Market Thoughts

Archived IMT (2011.03.31)

by Ashraf Laidi
Mar 31, 2011 10:32

2.6% CPI and a little more hawkishness is enough for the euro. Ezone Flash March CPI jumped to 2.6% from 2.4% vs exp 2.3% justifying the latest hawkish talk from the ECB. EURUSD was already rallying before the data when after ECB board member Lorenzo Bini Smaghi said the bank should introduce series of gradual rates hikes in the Ezone. One of the reasons markets ignored last nights comments from Kansas Feds Hoenig that the Fed indicating the Fed needed to get on with tightening current ultra loose policy is that i) Hoenig is NOT a voter at this years FOMC and ii) Hoenig was the ONLY consistent hawkish dissenter throughout all of last year, therefore, his demands for tightening are NEITHER new or effective. And so that is why I quipped earlier today that ONE Hawkish ECB comments was nearly worth THREE times the impact of Hawkish Fed comments? 2 days ago I emphasized EURUSD would remain supported above the Feb 14 trendline support of 1.3980. Now resistance emerges at 1.4255.


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