Intraday Market Thoughts

European Data Surprises to Upside, Lifting Sentiment, Turn to US

by Patrik Urban
Jan 3, 2012 13:08

Swiss PMI Jumped; German labor market improves; UK manufacturing PMI better than expected. Market turns to ISM manufacturing, construction spending and FOMC minutes. Ashraf will return in full operational mode on Jan 9th.

The greenback is lower across the board. Relative strength winners are NZD and AUD, closely followed by CHF. Major European equities are mixed between -0.65% to 1.2%.

Swiss SVME PMI printed solid 50.7 in December, higher than expected 45.4 and significantly stronger than previous 44.8. This is the first print above the 50 level after five months of declines. However, considering the deteriorating economy, this could be a one time aberration. EURCHF declined on the news from 1.2196 to current 1.2153

Positive German data also contributed to better sentiment, underpinning the Euro as unemployment declined by -22K in December and the unemployment rate declined to 6.8% from 6.9%.

In the UK, manufacturing PMI rose in December to 49.6 from previous 47.7. Nevertheless, today's result still indicates a sector contraction. GBPUSD jumped on the release from 1.5567 to 1.56 as a PMI decline to 47.4 was expected.

The US session will bring ISM manufacturing that is expected to rise to 53.2 in December after November's rebound to 52.7 and ISM manufacturing prices that are seen higher at 47.9 from 45.

November construction spending is anticipated to reach 0.5%, slightly lower from previous 0.8%. All three indicators are due at 10:00 am ET.

The minutes from the December 13th FOMC meeting are due at 2:00 pm ET.


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