Intraday Market Thoughts

Another Merkozy Date, While Sarkozy Pushes Tobin Tax

by Kyle Morrison
Jan 9, 2012 9:38

Merkel and Sarkozy to meet on fiscal affairs, German industrial production could improve, Aussie retail sales come in flat, Swiss retail sales bounce back.

EURUSD regains the 1.27 figure, after hitting fresh 16 month lows in overnight Asia, while EURJPY dipped to fresh 11-year lows. Markets remain unconvinced about a sustained policy response to the tribulations facing European politicians and their response to Europes debt crisis.

Todays meeting in Berlin between German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy sees 2012 start as 2011 ended with more meetings. The agenda is set to be dominated by the fiscal compact agreed upon last month, while Sarkozy threatens to unilaterally impose a Tobin tax on financial transactions as early as next month, even if Europe declines it. The idea for these transaction taxes is to be more efficiently set by as many markets as possible in order to optimize its revenue generation.

Investors will also be hoping that last weeks disappointing German retail sales and factory orders data will concentrate German minds ahead of the release of the latest November industrial production data, which is expected to show an improvement, with a rise of 4.1%, up from 0.8% in October.

Australian retail sales for November came in flat, below expectations of a rise of 0.3%, hitting a five month low and also raising expectations that another cut in rates is on the cards after Novembers reduction. This weak data should be tempered against a rise in new home sales prices, which increased by 6.8%, up from Octobers 5.5%.

Swiss retail sales rose 1.8% in the year ending in November, well over the expected 0.2% increase. This followed Octobers 0.2% decline. Swiss economic data has deteriorated in recent months due to the soaring franc, while deepening deflationary pressures further.


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