ECB Wakes, Nasdaq Leads, Yields Doubt
It is no surprise that each of the 3 highlighted (blue) tops in the S&P500 coincided with the start of fresh rallies in USDX. But as the S&P500 breaks the March trendline resistance, it sets its sight onto the 4120s—once it has filled the last of the June Gaps by clearing 4010/20. Then, we start considering the 100-DMA of 4140 and re-drawing the trendline to extend it from the January high on the weekly.
But maybe all of the above is too much effort, and we ought to looking at the Nasdaq100, which has risen 13% from its June lows vs 9% for the SPX and 8% for the DOW30. Why would we expect Nasdaq100 to continue rebounding faster than other indices? The breakout in the Growth/Value factor ratio, suggests further leadership in technology, which could bring 12970 in sigh.
Continued outperformance in Nasdaq and growth stocks will need the help of further concerns about growth (like today's ugly Philly Fed and LEI reports). But more will be required from the inflation side, as core PCE and CPI are released on later this month and early August. Will this translate into 135 USDJPY and 1.0440s in EURUSD. Very possible.
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