ECB Flawed Calendar Guidance
The ECB pulled the familiar trick of striking a dovish tone to the hawkish decision of affirming the end of QE this year. The dovish action was struck by the ECB shifting emphasis away from the end of QE towards announcing a lack of rate hikes well into summer of 2019 (calendar guidance). Just as it took the Fed one year to raise rates after ending QE, the ECB is attempting a similar plan. The only major difference between 2015 and now is that oil prices are currently twice as they were in 2015, which means imported inflation will filter easily via the weak euro, forcing the ECB to jawbone FX and yields earlier than expected. The other question to ask is: Why has the USD and the US 10 year yield failed to regain key resistance levels despite the Fed's hawkish hike and upward revisions? A new trade has been issued with the suppport of four charts, touching upon EUR and USD pairs. Our SMS service is currently facing difficutlies, therefore trades and analysis to Premium subscribers are sent via twitter and this newsletter.
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