FX Shrugs, Indices Shaken
The strikes against the US dollar are adding up. Thursday's risk aversion produced a dollar bid for a time but it faded in fairly short order, even against commodity and emerging market currencies. It begs the question: If the dollar can't rally on a day like that, when can it rally?
The economic data was mixed once again. Initial jobless claims were a touch higher than estimates while continuing and PUA claims were better. Housing starts fell 5.1% in a rare miss on the red hot real estate market while the Philly Fed was bang-on expectations at +15.0.
Data has been more up-and-down in the past few weeks after months of consistently beating expectations. That run of data sent the Citi economic surprise index to the highest ever but – notably – even with that the dollar has struggled since March. We may now be seeing what happens when economists (and markets) finally get a handle on the direction of the economy.
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