Intraday Market Thoughts

Polls, Trillion Bitcoin, SPX Gap & VIX Count

by Ashraf Laidi
Feb 15, 2024 16:13

Bitcoin's market capitalisation regains $1 trillion for the 1st time since late 2021, it reminds us that it was 3 years ago minus 4 days when it first broke this landmark. As Bitcoin approaches Meta, the inevitable cross-over (BTC > META) will draw more scrutiny as Meta is the 2nd fastest gainer YTD of the Magnificent7  at 38%, versus NVDA (51%), AMZN (12%), MSFT (9%), GOOG (2%) and AAPL (-2%). 

The 2nd chart shows the evolving standing of Trump's improving polling numbers in the US presidential polls as well as the candidacy for Republican leadership. As Haley's numbers tumble further, Trump's fortunes improve to the extent of helping his SPAC Digital World Acquisition Corp (DWAC). What does the polling gap in favour of Trump over Biden? Think oil and ETFS such as the XME.  More on the Unfilled SPX Gap & VIX Count below

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Polls, Trillion Bitcoin, SPX Gap & VIX Count - Market Cap Feb 15 2024 (Chart 1)

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Polls, Trillion Bitcoin, SPX Gap & VIX Count - Polls Haley Trump (Chart 2)

Other levels we're watching with the Whatsapp Broadcast Group is the 4.20% trendline support on the US 10yr yield and the 104 support of DXY, both of which are colluding to block XAUUSD at the 2010 level. This intermarket analysis sheds light on the potential inability of SPX to fill Tuesday's DownGap. Thus, as long as there's no close above 5015, the gap goes unfilled on a closing basis. Adding the VIX into the mix, we can observe Tuesday's successful close above the 200-DMA for the 1st time since the SVB crisis, followed two failed attempts (Jan 17 & 29) to break the 200-DMA for the VIX. Although the VIX has dropped back below the 200 DMA and 100 DMA today, it remains on an upward trend (higher lows) -- & that is the exact "failure pattern" followed on Aug 8 & 18, before soaring on Sep 26-Oct 25. 


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