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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: May 6, 2009 14:11
Comments: 54
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This thread was started in response to the Hot-Chart:

Battle of High Yielders

 
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Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
15 years ago
May 11, 2009 14:58
Rob,

Im more eager to use short AUDNZD for LT trade than NZDJPY because the latter has tendency to overshoot and the rate differential is GREATER in NZDJPY hence, more costly for LT shorts. Whereas LT shorts in AUDNZD involve a smaller and less costly rate differential. Are you still holding that short NZDJPY from Friday? would be good to take profits at 58 or 57.90 as Im not sure how far this equity selloff will go beyond the next Asian session.

Ashraf
Rob
New York, United States
Posts: 305
15 years ago
May 11, 2009 14:47
Hey Ashraf,

Thanks for all the comments below, learning a lot from others questions and your responses. You mentioned the AUD/NZD short being a good long-term trade. Would you also consider the NZD/JPY short a good long-term trade as I believe you had mentioned it should fall down to about 50? Also, it seems as if it has "no chance" of breaking far above 60 (so no reason to rush and take profits), even if equities sputter out a few more gains before the inevitable pullback. Your thoughts? Thanks for all!
fastpips
surrey, Canada
Posts: 69
15 years ago
May 11, 2009 14:07
Thanks a lot Ashraf.
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
15 years ago
May 11, 2009 13:05
Fastpips, if you wait for AUDUSD to get to 0.65, then youll be waiting for a long time. If you're looking for a long term trade, then consider scaling up buying AUDUSD at 0.73, 0.72 when it gets there. Meanwhile, going short AUDNZD remains a good long term trade. For long term trades, do not use more than 12-15% of your account.

Ashraf
fastpips
surrey, Canada
Posts: 69
15 years ago
May 11, 2009 4:06
Hi Ashraf!
I have been following your analysis for over two years now. I have come to a conclusion that just buy and hold on your calls give very decent results. Based on that I am planing to buy aus usd around 65 ( if it gets there). What is a safe margin in your opinion per lot. I was thinking 20k per lot in cmc account. Thanks
jt
United States
Posts: 15
15 years ago
May 11, 2009 2:53
Ashraf,

dollar index broke under 200-DAY and 200-WEEK mov average in the same week, highlighting the speed of the sell-off

Will this force the FED to have buy more treasuries than the $300B? Would this reverse the sell-off?

Jonathan
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
15 years ago
May 11, 2009 0:42
JimW, shorting NZDJPY, NZDUSD, GBPUSD, CADJPY and long USDCAD are ideal during stock market selloffs. 960 in S&P500 may yet to be reached.. This rally could still have legs thanks to the enormous stirch lows later this year. i see a 70% chance to retest the March lows.

Adam, be careful, rally may still have legs. I reiterate: shorting AUDNZD works well now, while shorting NZDJPY is also viable as we're testing the 60 yen high (even though my Friday call is now in the red).

GBPAUD dropped sharply last fall when stocks crashed but it quickly rebounded due to sterling's collapse. I expect the same thing to happen during the next risk aversion.

Ashraf
adamcpf
Lisbon, Qatar
Posts: 58
15 years ago
May 10, 2009 17:01
Ashraf,

Do you or have you traded the GBPAUD pair? As far as risk aversion trades go how does this fair up against the others? Tks & rgrds
adamcpf
Lisbon, Qatar
Posts: 58
15 years ago
May 9, 2009 22:09
Thank you Speculator and Ashraf. Also I see that you pointed out that we are close too the 200ma's on the S&P and DOW and already there on the FTSE, so technically we should see some profit taking at these levels, hence a decent sized correction. rgrds
jim W
California , United States
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
May 9, 2009 20:23

Ashraf, In an equity sell off of the US market what do you feel is the best risk aversion strategy. Also
do you feel the strategy may change if the sell off goes really deep, say to below 650 on the S&P.
Do you feel a testing of the lows is imminent?
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