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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: May 18, 2009 16:58
Comments: 24
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This thread was started in response to the Hot-Chart:

Oil & Yen pairs

 
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Pipples
Yorkshire, UK
Posts: 34
16 years ago
May 21, 2009 13:14
Hi Ashraf. B of J rate decision today? Expect any effect?
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
16 years ago
May 20, 2009 20:44
javierito, yes US-JPY 10 year yield spread fell from its 6 mth high of May 7th but the major driver of yen strength is also speculative flows (futures,options and pure sport hedge funds).


Ed, yes. 70% chance S&P hit new lows. As for USDCAD, it seems we could still get 1.25 but not sure about 1.30s.. USD is severely weak. BofCanada will have to jump into qttve easing for 1.30 to happen


Ashraf
Ed
, United States
Posted Anonymously
16 years ago
May 20, 2009 19:39
Ashraf, based on recent market developments, do you still see the S&P retesting lows and the USD/CAD going to 1.25?

Thanks,

Ed
javierito
Guadalajara, Spain
Posts: 2
16 years ago
May 20, 2009 18:50
Hi AShraf,
I like the correlation between oil and yen pairs.
But I see something that keeps me wondering and is that 10 year yield spreads are widening between euro or us and japan bond markets, so how long do you expect this yen strenghtening to last? Is this just an especulative movement from the futures market or is this more risk aversion on the table (VIX is going down and equities going up although in low volumes)?
Thanks
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
16 years ago
May 20, 2009 17:20
Rob, your technical argument against GBJPY is well taken but just bear in mind the pair is expensive. It is CHEAPER to SHORT AUDNZD as its pullsback after once again failing at 1.2850-70s. Daily chart calls for renewed triple failure top towards 1.2650

Ashraf
Rob
New York , United States
Posted Anonymously
16 years ago
May 20, 2009 16:15
Hey Ashraf,

Would you say GBP/JPY is simply riding the coat-tails of GBP/USD? Obviously it's due to go up with risk appetite, but it's much stronger than EUR/JPY in my eyes, just as GBP/USD is showing more strength than EUR/USD. Do you see a good entry level for a short in GBP/JPY today? Looks like it's always been beaten down when attempting to surpass 150.30 in the past weeks and can't breach 149.50 today. Any thoughts are appreciated.
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posted Anonymously
16 years ago
May 19, 2009 13:48
seems hard to keep a strong yen down. Bigger than exp decline in US housing starts pushed Dow furtures in red to the benefit of the USD and JPY but see how CADJPY and EURJPY near session lows.

Ashraf
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
16 years ago
May 19, 2009 12:45
FL, $1.5570 will be attempted. See my latest IMT.

Ashraf
FL
GuangZhou, China
Posts: 14
16 years ago
May 19, 2009 12:11
Hi Ashraf,

What do you think GBP/USD, at the end of May Favors in Upward or Downward ? now the rate is:1.5500 and what about Item of marked price?

Thanks
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
16 years ago
May 18, 2009 23:30
Hi Rob, let's get thru Jpns indus production figs for March tomorrow at 430 am GMT then the Jpns Q1 GDP, which are notorious for their revisions. if we get that 16% annualized contraction, then things should be very bad for JPY, especially if we get another rally in the US tomorrow.

Ashraf
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