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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Jun 15, 2009 12:47
Comments: 98
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This thread was started in response to the Hot-Chart:

CADJPY's Next Target

 
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Qin
Jonkoping, Sweden
Posts: 492
15 years ago
Jul 21, 2009 14:41
Hey, Arashf
I don't think people have long position on USD/CAD now....

I hold my short USD/CAD positions for a month.....because I believe oil will go up to 100 in 2 years........maybe it is too long to call......


Best regards
Qin
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
15 years ago
Jul 20, 2009 23:02
Jack, believe it or not, Reuters had a sub 0.89 print. it turned out that it was not a correct price. I never doubled checked. So yes, you are right. Yet. looking at AUDCAD, i would think the next source of decline will likely be more Aussie pullback instead of CAD strength.

For those long USDCAD, shorting AUDCAD is a decent hedge.

Ashraf
JackD
United States
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Jul 20, 2009 21:32
Dear Ashraf,

When you recently stated, "Our long favoured short AUDCAD is now at 7-week low well below 0.89, heading into 0.88 and 0.8740," did you perhaps misspoke about the 0.89 level and meant maybe 0.90?

Do you still see a turnaround from today's bullish run up on AUDCAD and expect the currency pair to go lower to the 0.88 area?

Thanks,

Jack
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
15 years ago
Jul 15, 2009 15:53
Gun, the USDCAD is definitely major but im not ready to expect a full retracement yet. Look at the WEEKLY CHART and it tells you we could have a down week like we had in end of Oct or mid Dec. looking at 1.1140-- but again keep an eye on stocks.

Ashraf
Gunjack
London, UK
Posts: 1184
15 years ago
Jul 15, 2009 13:40
Hi Ashraf with USDCAD falling through the 50% retracement level now at 1.1237, do you see anyway it could re-bound towards 1.17 levels again...or would you expect full re-tracement as per the levels indicated by Peter Ruuds blog on here.

Thanks
Gunjack
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
15 years ago
Jul 14, 2009 0:57
JS, raulin, oil's stochastics turning negative. I checked the Bloomberg charts whose channel support stands at 1.1450s. The oil decline has been rapid so we need a break. Perhaps we need for stocks to stabilize somewhat for a few days before we come down some more

Also watch for Canadian CPI on Friday, same day when rest of earnings is wrapped up for the week.

Ashraf
JS
Singapore
Posts: 1
15 years ago
Jul 13, 2009 18:28
USDCAD is currently at 1.1525, seems to have broken the 1.1540s mark. Do you still see the pair reaching 1.1700s again or do you think it will continue down to the next support?
raulin
london, UK
Posts: 65
15 years ago
Jul 12, 2009 13:30
Buying usd/cad on basis of oil weakening intensely frustrating exercise! Oil fell from a high of almost 73 on 30 June with USD/CAD highs of 1.1637 on that day and fallen to less than 60 dollars at one stage and all usd/cad can do is get to 1.1723 and despite oil falling it fell to 1.1436! It is currently range bound and needs to break and stay above 1.1650 for further appreciation but having said that it is in daily uptrend which does favour buying on the dips with 1.1550-80 attractive level to buy.
SPECULATOR
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Jul 10, 2009 18:57
depends what u define deflationionary which is also another debatable definition. what i mean in this context is downwards pressure which comes from an asset being overvalued (overshooting fair value).
Carlco
UK
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Jul 10, 2009 18:52
speculator, 'irrational speculators' have nothing to do with deflationary pressures.
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