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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Jun 24, 2009 14:06
Comments: 182
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This thread was started in response to the Hot-Chart:

USDJPY 4-week Cycles

 
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Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
15 years ago
Jun 30, 2009 23:06
Gunjack, we had a bit of a bounce in NY and nikkei futures off their lows so maybe risk aversion may not be that high (appetite may not fall so much) in which case we could see USDJPY little changed.

Rob, Thanks for raising the TANKAN SURVEY. I will make an IMT about it in a minute. Watch large manuf index as well as the expectations for CAPEX. And your reasoning is very sound.

Ashraf
Rob
New York, United States
Posts: 305
15 years ago
Jun 30, 2009 21:46
Hi Everyone,

I think the Tanken Manufacturing Outlook will also play a fairly strong role in where USD/JPY goes in the Asian session - though it may influence stocks as well. I would say that if risk aversion is still rising and Tanken shows better or on par with expected, we could see USD/JPY fall nicely. Any thoughts anyone? Good trading to all!
Gunjack
London, UK
Posts: 1184
15 years ago
Jun 30, 2009 21:15
Thx for your earlier reply ashraf...How do you see USDJPY correlating with your tweet re: bearishness in the nikkei tonight. Do you think this could weigh negatively on the yen allowing the $ to gain a further foothold and test the 96.9 right shoulder?

Thanks
Gunjack
speculator
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Jun 30, 2009 20:45
ashraf, and what is your upper end of the 4cast i.e. weakest CAD
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
15 years ago
Jun 30, 2009 20:15
spec, based on my year-end forecast for broad USD weakness, id see USDCAD around 1.05-03. but that does NOT mean that is see stocks rallying. the relationship may weaken.

Ashraf
speculator
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Jun 30, 2009 20:11
thanks ashraf,

where do u see cad/usd year end.

thanks
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
15 years ago
Jun 30, 2009 17:27
spec, my reply for gunjack still stands. corelations cannot be expected to continue 100%. risk appetite laws govern fx trading instead of textbook economics that says bad consumer confidence is bad for dollar. so FX people got carried away in going back to USD once stocks blatantly failed to break above those levels i mentioned. like is aid, right shoulder resistance at USDJPY at 97./

Ashraf
speculator
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Jun 30, 2009 16:23
corr equities vs yen/dollar
speculator
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Jun 30, 2009 16:22
ashraf, how do you explain gunjacks question.

could it be that the correlations of equities and risk aversion is easing and other factors are more dominating in this particular pair..hmm
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
15 years ago
Jun 30, 2009 16:16
Gunjack, yes, id say traders are getting carried away reversing all short USD plays including the previous shorts in USDJPY. daily USDJPY suggest right shoulder resistance at 96.90.

Ashraf
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