AUDNZD Looking for a Turn

Many thanks Vik , you was very kind , lake always .

I"m still short on aud/nzd , but i try to don"t be too confident on this move..

Last quest : what means in your opinion , to trade it 5 mins after release "if it looks right" : 1% up and go long , or ?

Good luck

Radu,

last three quarters were 0.6%, 0.4% and 0.2% - the forecast now is 0.9% which is very aggressive because the last time GDP grew q/q at this level was Dec 07.

but - and a big but, the comparative quarter of last year declined 0.5% - which was the only decline over the last 9 years - the previous time Australia had a -ve GDP was in the release of March 2001. Therefore, to grow 0.9% off a -0.5% GDP is not hard at all.

Also, I suspect the RBA would have some idea of the figure before they decided yesterday to raise the cash rate again.

guessing what the number will be is like playing in a casino. if you are still short audnzd - then put a wide stop before the release - as, if it comes out at 1% or more then aud will rally - i think.

I will trade the event either way - 5 minutes after the release, if it looks right. Just so you know - a few of the so called forex experts are short audjpy - so you have them on your side.

Good luck
Vik

only thing that will reverse the audnzd strength is a rate hike - nz is at 2.5% vs aus at 4%.

nz economy is far weaker than aus - in all aspects.

other factor that would result in a reversal is, if aud crashes because china catches a bad cold.

aud is almost a proxy for the rimimbi

does AUDNZD short bias hold...I read this analysis late last week as the AUDNZD was selling off, we even got a tweet indicating the analysis was correct, I dumped my long, but wow things really turned around this week. Why is the kiwi so weak?