Forum > View Topic (Analytic)
by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Nov 24, 2008 3:56
Comments: 677
View Analytic
This thread was started in response to the Analytic:

EUR Trade Index 18-Year Chart

Daily EURO chart of 18 years of cyclical developments in finance & politics
 
andrew
london, UK
Posted Anonymously
10 years ago
Jul 29, 2009 9:31
Hi Ashraf,

i hope you are very well and earning loads of money.

i enjoy your shows on the financial channels and find you, nicole elliot, roy faber and hugh extremely interesting and thank you for all your previous views and guidance.

analysis: what is the 6 month outlook for euro/ dollar as in 2001 dollar strengthened to dec 01 and then the following two years collapsed from the jan 02 onwards. This implies a market correction of the stocks and shares and so euro with sterling will weaken and complete the elliot waves 5th move.

question: what do you think?
Muira
Kenya
Posted Anonymously
11 years ago
Mar 5, 2009 13:35
To support my technical argument with fundamentals is that the $2 trillions of eastern European debt added to EU domestic liabilities and exposure to U.S. subprime collatorised debt, brings the Euro zones total toxic debt liabilities to more than $23 trillion, this is set against the U.S. liabilities estimated at $11 trillion, therefore Europe is in a far more dangerous position in terms of the fallout from the credit crisis than the United States. The primary reason for such greater exposure is that the European banks were far trickier than the U.S. banks in terms of off balance sheet leverage i.e. many European banks have leveraged up to as much as X60 capital, against typical wall street bank leverage of X30 capital. This therefore in the immediate future implies greater contraction of the European economies than the U.S. economy as well as suggesting higher inflation and therefore supports the view of a stronger US Dollar against the Euro.
Muira
Kenya
Posted Anonymously
11 years ago
Mar 4, 2009 19:24
Hi Ashraf,
I did an Elliot Wave analysis on the EUR/USD and my conclusions were EURO has a lot of downward room to cover before any recovery. If you look at the monthly chart from the beginning of 2001-2008 we have a 5 wave up, the downward correction that has followed has so far done an A-B----
C is currently in progress.
Wave C normally ends relatively below where wave 4 ends for which this case is 1.1400 area. Another reason to believe this area is key is because the A-B done, B retraced up to 0.618 of wave A, so we should expect an AB=CD pattern.
But what could change this picture, considering a double bottom is looming in the EUR/USD, a bounce up and a retest of 1.45 area and a correction down to the current levels thus creating a triple bottom could significantly end the bear of EUR.
Whats your take?

Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
11 years ago
Mar 4, 2009 15:46
Hi Matt,

Those opposing views are currently prevailing. If the global economy manages to stage a credible recovey in 2 years from now, then EURUSD is seen at 1.55-1.60. I don't think the Euroone will break up. The repercussions for any Euro member exiting the Eurozone would be extremely punishing for the national curency, its financial market and its overall economy.

Ashraf
Matt
Montreal, Canada
Posted Anonymously
11 years ago
Mar 4, 2009 9:32
Hi Ashraf,

Currently, there seem to be 2 opposing views on the EURUSD. One being that there is as the debt imploding there is a scarcity of USD and as such it is and, as long as this process continues, will be increasing in value. In addition, as there are problems with E. Europe EUR may collapse or cease to exist.

The other one points out that the USD rally will end when Europe's financial system starts collapsing. Investors will realize that the EU won't print money to bail out its banks, and that will send the euro soaring against the dollar.

What is your take on the EURUSD an where do you see it going in the next 2-3 years?

Cheers and keep up a good work!
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
11 years ago
Dec 4, 2008 12:47
Francis, market expects -50 bps cut by ECB and not 75-bps, which if done would be short term negative for EUR. NFP tomorrow will have to be worse thabn -320K or 350K for it to remain USD positive but watch stock futures also.

Ashraf
francis
GuangZhou, China
Posted Anonymously
11 years ago
Dec 4, 2008 8:37
Hi Ashraf

The market Anticipated (ECB) cut rate 75 Basic point, if cuting rate Scope Being

bigger than Anticipated EUR/USD fast Falling, Whether Involvement good chance?

and how do you regard (Non-agriculture employed population data) for EUR/USD

Influence