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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Jan 8, 2009 14:14
Comments: 9
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This thread was started in response to the Article:

European FX Surge vs. Commodity FX

As BoE rate cuts grow smaller, GBP and EUR emerge victorious against commodity currencies.
 
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
11 years ago
Jan 14, 2009 15:43
Rob,

Yes, I think the latest deterioration in stocks could take down USDJPY towards 86.50 and 86. I still think there's a 80% chance USDJPY drops below 80 and onto 75 later this year.

Ashraf
Rob
New York, United States
Posted Anonymously
11 years ago
Jan 14, 2009 14:14
Hi Ashraf,

With retail sales plunging more so in Dec. than Nov., should we still expect risk aversion to remain strong - fueling the USD/JPY past the Neckline to as low as 86 as originally mentioned in your article on 1/12?

Thanks
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
11 years ago
Jan 12, 2009 19:20
Hi Rob,

$1.3250 is the next key support in EURUSD. A break below it may be supported at $1.28. But Im not too sure whether the next bout of risk aversion will be necessarily as negative for EURUSD as it was in H2 2008.

Ashraf
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
11 years ago
Jan 9, 2009 11:15
Brendan, I agree with your buy signal for EURUSD but as my latest piece mentions, EUR and GBP were rallying against commodity currencies. AUD is a commodity currency. Now this may change after NFP.

Ashraf
Brendan
www.forexandbinary.com, Great Britain
Posted Anonymously
11 years ago
Jan 9, 2009 8:47
My system has signal up for EURUSD (European currency) but signal down for AUDUSD (Commdity currency). Quite strange to me as they often move in the same direction. Do you see that happening?
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
11 years ago
Jan 9, 2009 7:32
Hi Waqar, better than expected PPi will undoubtedly be positive for cable but those gains will likely quickly dissipate around the end of the morning London session ahead of NFP. Also watch UK industrial production where the m/m figure seen falling by less than the prior month -0.5% from -1.7%. Some are now talking about NFP possibly being -1 MILLION jobs. but unemp rate is crucial. $1.53800 remains good sell for a 100 pip gain.

Ashraf
Waqar
Lahore, Pakistan
Posted Anonymously
11 years ago
Jan 8, 2009 22:26
Hi Ashraf,

Once again a great call in Cable.If we get better than expected UK PPI numbers tomorrow,how do you expect cable to perform especially since it has closed above its 50 day moving average for the first time since Dec 17th.

Would also appreciate your thoughts on USD/CAD going into tomorrows canadian/US numbers.

Thanks.
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
11 years ago
Jan 8, 2009 17:19
Hi Dave,

Yes, the correlation is explained via risk appetite. Do not confound those commodities rallies that are boosted by improved risk appetite and those by global growth. The former is less sustainable. But today gold is up due to broad USD selloff and equities are just showing relief rally on Obama's tax cuts.

Watch not only payrolls tomorrow but also the unemployment rate and it breaks above 7%.

Ashraf
dave
Singapore
Posted Anonymously
11 years ago
Jan 8, 2009 14:41
Hi Ashraf,
do you expect the equities to continue its rally?
I noticed that gold would move up each time there is a rally in equities market. is there correlation here?

thanks!