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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Mar 13, 2009 15:13
Comments: 41
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This thread was started in response to the Article:

Here Comes the 2-Month Cycle

Stocks could be in for a fresh 2-month rally, in line with the pattern of the past 12 months.
 
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jjstone
Toronto, Canada
Posts: 45
16 years ago
Apr 30, 2009 21:28
Sean, they say the market can stay irrational, longer then you can stay solvent.
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
16 years ago
Apr 30, 2009 8:28
Sean, the sharp rally in Asia has triggerred risk appetite trades in FX. 880 in S&P500, 4,200-4,300 in FTSE-100 and 9,000 in Nikkei-225 are roughly the upper thresholds. stocks in the US ended 1% off their intraday highs. still many unknowns regarding capital adequacy for US banks. And do not forget the likely confusion emerging with the stress tests next week i.e. end of 8 week cycle

Ashraf
Sean
Singapore
Posted Anonymously
16 years ago
Apr 30, 2009 2:24
Hi Ashraf

I tend to agree with your analysis - however, the market really does seems to have legs! Bad news are discarded while any released data that simply falls less than predicted is able to bring up the market. More "experts" are declaring the worst over.... Do you still think it will be June / Oct (why Oct ?) for a low to appear ? 2 months from 13 March would be mid-May.

best rgds
Sean
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
16 years ago
Mar 30, 2009 17:22
Bacon, thanks for coming on Sat. I verey clearly stated this weekend that expect stocks will drop below the March lows...soemtime in June. If not then, most likely in October.

Neither the Autos nor Banks are doing very well.. the only thing thats improving is stocks, and that has all to do with bottom pickers and not improvement in fundamentals.

Ashraf
BaconHam
Singapore
Posted Anonymously
16 years ago
Mar 29, 2009 11:51
Hi Ashraf,

I attended your seminar on 28th March 09 in Singapore. I enjoyed every miniute of it. Hope you have enjoyed your stay in Singapore too. When you were here last year, you predicted that an imminent crash in S&P 500 is about to occur. It did came true and I am very impressed.

This time round, due to time constrains ( we are supposed to evacuate the room by 12.30pm sharp ), I wasn't able to ask you a question which has been on my mind for some time. I am taking this opportunity to ask you here:

Recently, countries across the world has reported that the decline in economic activities( home sales/retail sales/manufacturing/exports/unemployment/consumer confidence etc ) has slowed ie the data has stablised and starting to show some improvement. It makes me wonder if the worse is over. Even Citigroup came out to say that they are profitable in the first 2 months of the year and expressed optimism going forward. And with record low interest rates globally and huge stimulus packages, in your opinion what could derail the current global stock market rally and caused it to crash to new lows in October 09 ?

Hope to hear from you soon. Thanks.
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
16 years ago
Mar 23, 2009 9:09
ROB, as I told you in NY, i expect $1,100,-$1,200 by end of Q3. Copper and silver still getting the best of Gold.

Ashraf
tarazuze
UK
Posted Anonymously
16 years ago
Mar 22, 2009 18:31
hi ashraf great article my system also gives big move up imminent for dow and dax , dax could move up to 5150 then i will be pulling the cord and its time to freefall back to test the lows
rob
United States
Posted Anonymously
16 years ago
Mar 21, 2009 2:59
Hi Ahraf.You must have seen the John Paulson stake in Anglo Gold,and The trader/Arb Touraji's bullish comments on Gold in todays FT.Do you have a target in 6 months? Rob,SF,Ca
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
16 years ago
Mar 19, 2009 22:21
Nick, Thanks for bringing up that quote from the book. many analysts are tarting to call this dollar move the beginning of the next downleg of the dollar. guess what...some started to call it the same thing when eurusd jumped to 1.40s in December. I will argue that in my next article that we could further dollar selling into early Q2 (late April). but mainly against Aussie, Kiwi and Nokke and to lesser extent euro. There are still doubts with ECB policy making, if it succeeds in avoiding quantitative easing etcc.. i see some dollar strength in mid summer before we gradually return to sellmode in Q4.

Pipples, GBPCAD will need to break above 1.8250 before any real chances to start talking about a reverse head&shoulder formation (bullish formation) into 1.850. Overall, this will be rangebound as both economies are extremely poor. Dont buy too much into the high oil high CAD play. watch UK banks for news effect on GBP and poor CAD data weihing on currency.

Ashraf
Pipples
Yorkshire, UK
Posts: 34
16 years ago
Mar 19, 2009 19:23
Hi Ashraf,

How do you see GBP panning out against the CAD now? Still expect the GBP to do best over the next couple of months?

Cheers.
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