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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Jun 19, 2009 14:00
Comments: 65
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This thread was started in response to the Article:

Exiting the Exit Strategy

Bernanke's FOMC will use "disinflationary" reference to containing yields rather than benign growth. Thursday is his 2nd chance.
 
speculator
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Jun 27, 2009 0:58
ashraf,

GBPUSD correlation with equities has fallen recently and I believe you predict it to continue to weaken as more of the moves will be explained by fundamentals with the countries.

just out of interest, how did the this correlation this quarter compare with the longer term figure.

thanks
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
15 years ago
Jun 26, 2009 23:05
fxhandler, like i said, this will be the battle between the SNB (dragging CHFNOK) and risk aversion/falling stocks (rising CHFNOK). Chart looks like we may break lower i.e. victory for SNB

Ashraf
FXHandler
Norway
Posts: 195
15 years ago
Jun 26, 2009 19:21
Hi Ashraf

The CHF/NOK made a perfect SHS formation between October and March, and dropped down to 5,6.
However, it went up again, consolidated between 5,9-5,7 untill May. In May "I should have stayed away". May/June is what I call the end of Bear-Market-rally. Now the consolidation has reached a higher level, bottoms are higher and tops are higher. This is why I expect another top (like the one we had last Monday before Swiss Bank intervention).
Whenever stocks and oil drop, the NOK drop too. No matter if Swiss Bank intervene, CHF is a safe heaven currency, and NOK is not....
Just wondering how high up we will go before Swiss Bank will intervene again.

Regards
Rob
New York, United States
Posts: 305
15 years ago
Jun 26, 2009 16:14
Very much appreciated Ashraf, and thanks for the doubling down clarification.
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
15 years ago
Jun 26, 2009 16:12
Rob, i would add to long usdcad around 1.15-1.1520 for prelim target of 1.1570-80 before retest of 1.1640 (resistance). Doubling down is a No-No when you're down 200 or 300 pips and your account is down markedly. Now thats NOT the case here, we're just 80 pips from the current cycle high and teh way stocks appear, CAD slated for furtehr selling but be NIMBLE ahead of 1.1640s. we need to see 1.1660s to see clear break.

Ashraf
Rob
New York, United States
Posts: 305
15 years ago
Jun 26, 2009 15:48
Hey Ashraf,

I really appreciate your advice with everything. I wasn't sure what you meant by not "waiting to regain" and didn't want to close my position down the way it was. I got in rather late. Also, I have thought about doubling down, but I think you say to never do that. I was curious how that is any different from closing a position down and then opening another one right away, if that's what you were alluding to.
I'm still down, but not overly concerned because of the recent bounce. How do you feel about adding to an open position in this case? That is, with expectations of hitting higher targets. Thanks for your patience and time on this site and personally.
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
15 years ago
Jun 26, 2009 11:47
Rob, if you look at the USDCAD CHANNEL SINCE JUNE 3rd, youll see SUPPORT AT around 1.1350 at bottom of that channel. before that we have 1.1415. again, i mentioned 1.1640 was big resistance, hence the failure yesterday. rather than waiting to regain 1.1640, look into fresh new positions for taking profut at lower targets ie 1.1540, 1.1580

FXHandler, not sure what you mean about CHFNOK in a bear market because the pair has been consolidating since Jan around 5.8-5.9. if you're asking me whether this will continue to go lower, i would say yes so you have the SNB behind you. but be careful because the pair has been attempting to RALLY DURING FALLING STOCKS. So pray for the SNB to maintain your short.

Ashraf
FXHandler
Norway
Posts: 195
15 years ago
Jun 26, 2009 2:26
Hi Ashraf!

I am struggling with a short on CHFNOK. I was about to sell out, but unfortunately Swiss Bank started selling CHF before me the 24.th of June. So now I am stuck with this short. I shoud have seen it coming. The support line between EUR/CHF is 1.500 and Swiss Bank like to keep their CHF on the upside of this level.
However I am trading CHFNOK in a bear-market... not smart, I know.
The support level for this currency pair has kept on consolidated to a higher level. (I should have got out in May....)

Please, I need your help. How high will the CHFNOK go before it will drop down again?

PS. I lost allot of money on trading, listening to my "expert-brokers". To bad I didnt discover your excellence last year, before I stepped into this thriller.

Best Regards
Bjrn
Rob
New York, United States
Posts: 305
15 years ago
Jun 25, 2009 22:53
Hi Ashraf,

Sorry if I missed it in other posts, I'm not sure if you mentioned it though.

What support level needs to be breached to cancel out the daily upward trend in USD/CAD? I know you mentioned 1.1510 as support - but I didn't think that was related to the upward channel. Thanks.
Rob
New York, United States
Posts: 305
15 years ago
Jun 25, 2009 19:11
Am I the only who thinks that FX traders are much more bearish than equity traders today? With this rally in equities, I'd expect to see much more weakness in the Yen and Dollar.