Forum > View Topic (Article)
by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Jun 19, 2009 14:00
Comments: 65
View Article
This thread was started in response to the Article:

Exiting the Exit Strategy

Bernanke's FOMC will use "disinflationary" reference to containing yields rather than benign growth. Thursday is his 2nd chance.
 
1234567
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
15 years ago
Jun 23, 2009 23:17
Rob, thanks to your question im going to reprint part of the April FOMC regarding the Asset purchases at the IMT. I do agree with you that markets are biased towards USD weakness, therefore if they stick with the SAME LANGUAGE, we may see some modest USD weakness. But as I said in last weeks article, Fed will likely nudge up its CENTRAL TENDENCY FORECASTS on GDP GROWTH (could be positive for yields and equities) while TEMPERING DOWM INFLATION OUTLOOK (designed to keep yields down). There are too many variables so best not to take any large positions before 14:15 EST (19:15 BST).
http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20090429a.htm

Ashraf
Rob
New York, United States
Posts: 305
15 years ago
Jun 23, 2009 22:17
Hey Ashraf,

Only "when others are fearful" right? No, I here you loud and clear, thanks for reinforcing the need to keep exiting and opening positions when targets are hit.
My feeling is that the Fed will not announce purchases tomorrow and will simply talk about how rates aren't going to increase any time soon. Not sure the rest of the world (mainly China) wants to see the dollar get crushed in one fell swoop again - and I feel as if the US is realizing that, and therefore will be a bit more cautious moving forward. Though it may not be necessary at this time anyway.
Do you feel the sentiment going around markets is whether or not purchases are announced, mainly? If they don't announce, I still feel the dollar could fall a bit, possibly on an equity rally as traders will appreciate that rates will remain low for a while. Perhaps a knee jerk reaction is in store, similar to after non-farm payrolls - but this time it would be the opposite direction. Thanks for you input and advice.
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
15 years ago
Jun 23, 2009 18:01
Rob, come on dont get too greedy on that CADJPY. always secure your profits and open fresh shorts on periodic dips ESPECIALLY ahead of big event such as FOMC where you never know what happens. YEN CROSSES all ROSE (yen fell ax board excpt vs USD) after Fed first announced trsy purchases in MARCH as you remmber stocks shot up the roof, gold exploded, dollar fell across the board. TOMORROW MAY NOT BE THE SAME. could see FED staying away from hinting on purchases (yields already down) which coudl help USD. but im biased towards further shorting USDJPY. CADJPY next target 81.30.

Ashraf
Rob
New York, United States
Posts: 305
15 years ago
Jun 23, 2009 17:37
Hi Ashraf,

Do you have any data on what the Yen-crosses did right after the March FOMC meeting when the Fed first announced Q.E.? I'm still holding my CAD/JPY short (thanks), and was wondering if the Yen would track the dollar. Will it simply depend on what stocks do after the meeting? As opposed to the Dollar, which will be dependent on Fed policy? Also, targets for CAD/JPY would be appreciated. Thanks for your help.
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
15 years ago
Jun 23, 2009 16:36
Pipples, yes this has been a concern. can you imagine if they didnt have that bullion? your suggestions are very useful. owning the real thing is increasingly important in this envmt.

jt, stocks were up so dollar was down.i hope you are familiar with this relationship, which has been analyzed incessanrtly on this website. FTSE DAX DOW FUTS were all up. I mentione dthat in my twiier updates. but then it all changed. follow me on twitter if you have not already.

cougr, careful when you start "WAITING" for things. there trend line support around 13, so you can lookinto buying some around there.

Ashraf
cougr
Australia
Posts: 101
15 years ago
Jun 23, 2009 15:26
Ashraf , I've noticed since about mid march that silver and the dollar have had an inverse relationship so I'm waiting for the dollar to finish it's currrent upwards run and then jump onto silver.
jt
United States
Posts: 15
15 years ago
Jun 23, 2009 15:02
Why such a strong dollar sell off today in the European Mkt..

Was it all because the data out of Germany? Treasury Auctions?

JT
Pipples
Yorkshire, UK
Posts: 34
15 years ago
Jun 23, 2009 14:27
Or, if you're concerned about reported worries over whether these etf's actually have all the bullion they're supposed to, maybe think of CEF or maybe Goldmoney, Bullionvault. (Hope you don't mind me mentioning them, Ashraf.)
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
15 years ago
Jun 23, 2009 14:23
Load up on those silver ETFs.

Ashraf
mikestiller
New York, United States
Posts: 9
15 years ago
Jun 23, 2009 14:00
Monthly generic gold contract reduces all the noise. We have been and still are in consolidation mode since late 2007. Looks like to me we are setting up for a big move UP in the months ahead. Gold has a track record of infuriating both longs and shorts alike. Just my opinion.
Report Reply
1234567