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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Jun 29, 2009 18:15
Comments: 71
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Green Shoots Fatigue & Intermarket Setup

The much-anticipated dollar rebound will rather emerge on "Green Shoots" fatigue rathern misplaced views of a US economic recovery preceding the rest of the world.
 
speculator
Posted Anonymously
11 years ago
Jul 4, 2009 12:30
ashraf,

i'd say we will have a poor run in equities in short term with increased risk aversion due to poor economic numbers, containment of liqudiity expansion by fed (SHORT TERM) and bearishness/cautious attitude on recent risk rally among fund managers. shorting commodity based currencies and higher yielders will be profitable with CAD one of them. we are also likely to see dollar/yen carry trades unwound with flows back to these currencies in the short term.

also, based on our debate about us dollar debasement, it is my belief that the dollar will depreciate against BRICS on a great scale rather than G8/G10. therefore, the USDx will not suffer as many believe in the longer term. jim rogers is highly pro BRICS and not G10 for obvious reasons and i would agree.

as it will take many years for the world economies to recover and for the US to reduce their recently increased savings rate (for consumption trends pre2007), large gains for oil and downside on USDX will be limited.

have a good weekend
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
11 years ago
Jul 4, 2009 1:49
redstsone, we'd have to wait next week's down leg in equities. signal from oil looks quite ominous.

rob, not bad suggestions. And as i said in my tweet last night, EURAUD also looks to be stabilizing as stocks peak and fall. eurcad can be very volatile but that's not bad idea. but the way oil is going to fall more still presents shortterm opportunity for USDvsCAD

Ashraf
Rob
New York, United States
Posts: 305
11 years ago
Jul 3, 2009 20:18
Hi Ashraf,

With USD strength being compromised by US debt and economy, BRIC moves out of USD, and China and Russia opening their mouths about different reserves - how do you feel about going long GBP/CAD (or EUR/CAD) instead of USD/CAD? Both pairs seem to have quite a strong upward channel in daily and weekly charts. Thanks
redstone
UK
Posts: 25
11 years ago
Jul 3, 2009 18:44
Hi Ashraf. still holding JPY am waiting for stocks to head lower to cash in on risk aversion but would ultimately like to shift holdings to AUD. As to when, your advice would be greatly appreciated.
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
11 years ago
Jul 3, 2009 1:03
Rob, i overlooked your Qstn. but i guess cable is finally giving as NY was bad and Tokyo will mirror it

Ashraf
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
11 years ago
Jul 3, 2009 1:01
redstone, have your JPY holdings now turned to green? you said you were going to get rid of them in middle of Friday trading.

Ashraf
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
11 years ago
Jul 2, 2009 22:36
EUR$ eyes 1.3880 (target 1st mentioned this morning). NZDUSD looks to test 0.6240 then it's 0.6170 from there. USDCAD likes the way US session closed at session lows and testing 1.1630s & EUR hits 1.3950. THIS NITE IS SO NOT OVER. Over and out to twitter.

Ashraf
Rob
New York, United States
Posts: 305
11 years ago
Jul 2, 2009 20:36
Guess it took another 25 points down in the dow to get it moving down
speculator
Posted Anonymously
11 years ago
Jul 2, 2009 20:07
could be large buy orders for the pound on a non-trading basis. can move markets if volumes thin
Rob
New York, United States
Posts: 305
11 years ago
Jul 2, 2009 20:04
speculator - I agree, especially given the weak UK construction PMI - Also, China apparently has added another comment saying that the dollar as reserve was STABLE.