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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Jun 29, 2009 18:15
Comments: 71
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Green Shoots Fatigue & Intermarket Setup

The much-anticipated dollar rebound will rather emerge on "Green Shoots" fatigue rathern misplaced views of a US economic recovery preceding the rest of the world.
 
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Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
15 years ago
Jun 30, 2009 16:05
hamish, being canadian i hope you benefited from my recurring sugegstions to buy USDCAD for the past 2 weeks and past 24 hrs. best way to play risk aversion trade is to BUY USD vs non-JPY currencies. but shoerting USDJPY appears to pay off moe during RISK APPETITE ie.. next time wee see broad USD losses. im hollding to it. but dont stay fixated on one thing and look for buying USD vs CAD, EUR, AUD, NZD, GBP... see my previous tweets and IMTs

Ashraf
hamish
vancouver, Canada
Posts: 26
15 years ago
Jun 30, 2009 16:01
Hi,Ashraf why didn't usdjpy move down with the risk aversion group, perhaps you have reconsidered your short scenario?
speculator
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Jun 30, 2009 15:46
i see 1.55 within 1 month. equities will fall. news today that US real estate conditions are imporving will add to dollar's buying incentive because:
investors may revise fed's rate hike to sooner rather than later
expectations that US may come out of recession first
QE may be less necessary and capped at current budget rather than extended
stubbs0821
Manila, Phillipines
Posts: 17
15 years ago
Jun 30, 2009 15:45
added to this of course is the apparent resumption of the dive in equities.

i got caught up in buying the cable earlier today when it appeared to have broken the resistance of the triangle formation but the speed of the reversal led me to abandon my initial stance and reversed instead once it broke back below 1.6600. in the words of Ashraf, traders must be NIMBLE.
hope this helps you.
you should definitely start trading spec, you seem to have a good grip on things.
stubbs0821
Manila, Phillipines
Posts: 17
15 years ago
Jun 30, 2009 15:41
speculator, for weeks now i have been waiting for 1.6200 to break, only to have it rejected and sent back towards 1.6600 area, but todays candlestick is a very strong reversal indicator. divergence in the MACD of the daily chart appeared as well. stops probabaly needed to be taken out above 1.6600 before heading down targetting 1.6200 then 1.5800
speculator
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Jun 30, 2009 15:36
ashraf,

cable did indeed fall off a cliff today.

well done!
speculator
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Jun 30, 2009 15:32
stubbs what technical analysis are you using for this evidence?
stubbs0821
Manila, Phillipines
Posts: 17
15 years ago
Jun 30, 2009 15:20
Ashraf, looks like there's enough momentum building this time to finally break below 1.6200
NATELY
LISBOA, Portugal
Posts: 2
15 years ago
Jun 30, 2009 15:19
Ashraf,

Do you see a fall in $tnx in the coming months and a corresponding decline in $spx and world equities generally ?

Love your work and can't wait to get my hands on your book
cougr
Australia
Posts: 101
15 years ago
Jun 30, 2009 15:18
My first target just got taken out ,admittedly alot quicker than I thought.
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