EURUSD 1.1851 |
USDJPY 111.52 |
GBPUSD 1.3772 |
AUDUSD 0.7485 |
USDCAD 1.2406 |
GBPJPY 153.59 |
EURJPY 132.15 |
AUDJPY 83.48 |
CADJPY 89.86 |
Silver 26.23 |
Friday's $2431 high in gold consisted of a 21% rise from the Feb 14th low. Such percentage extensions from key lows or/and technical levels such as the 200-DMA, could flag crucial opportunities for partial/full profit-taking. Watch here.
Bitcoin versus Miners Performance
As many of you know 2023 was kind to members of our WhatsApp Broadcast Group who snapped up shares in bitcoin miners, while 2024 has so far been more superior to Bitcoin than most of the miners...
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as for dubai they have plenty of things to do for a long time especially since the set up of treasury safe haven in this area of the world.
my thought on eurusd is 13800-50 for the coming days but i dont expect much strenghin euro due to among other reason the continuation of unwinding of yen carry trade positions; USDJPY projection for cominf days 8850
even if euro count for half of basket currencies one has to take into account that EURO is an INTRA community currency.
as for price difference between wti and brent its regarding transport differential cost and level of sulphur at the refining level.
Your Dubai argument is fair enough...but believe it or not, the recent strength in USD has got more to do w/ the parallel weakness of EUR (probable defaults or Greece, Spain, Portugal...coming up next: Italy, Ireland) than any other fundamental occurence. Your loss is my gain, right?
We'll see in the coming days - as finance leaders try & calm the markets - that the dollar index will retreat below 80, vindicating the belief that it was indeed the crisis of sovereign defaults that led the USD to strength in the first place.
Ashraf would know best...but I firmly believe that we're still some distance away from a CLEAR dollar rebound...
Asad
at my opinion none of the reasons u gave are eligible for explaining dollar strengh. Dubai debt crisis is not a real debt crisis;i have lived in dubai and i know what it is about. Greece and coming portugal are projecting regional integration, the second in south america. These dynamics trigger probable debt default all across the european board but as an entropy there are huge and real value transfert from this rumours.
as for dollar and yen strengh what if the answer and the murderer, not the usual suspect, would be from the commodities side and libor euribor.
US dollar and euro plays catch up on this commodity supercycles when i talk blocks's integration. the pretender THE POUND AND THE YEN.
the four fantastic revisited.
I remember you mentioning since December (2008!) that the USD would rally, albeit the reasons for the current haven't got much to do w/ your reasons...rather, due to the extreme events that have taken place in the previous weeks.
Really, would the USD have rallied if the perceived risks of a Dubai default wouldn't have set in? Would the USD have rallied if Obama hadn't started off w/ the Volcker stuff? Would the USD have rallied if the sovereign default items had not been doing the rounds?
Seriously, if the markets had been moving like they had since late December - barring these recent happenings (which your analysis had no knowledge, or account, of) - then we wouldn't have expected things to change much!
It's the riskiness of the recent extreme events that has caused an inflow of funds into the USD & bonds, & nothing to do w/ your two-quarter-old analysis. What do you think?
Asad
back in december i mentioned that the dollar will rally sharply and unexpectedly..so it has but more to come. the dollar is in a multui-year start of a bull that started when lehman went bust. the recent downleg was a blip due to dollar liqiuidity. now that the liquidity is being stemmed and a new tightening cycle is forming with soverign issues elsewhere, the dollar will be the beneficiary for more than just a quarter or two
If you were to jump into silver, what'd be the ideal price? How about now? I know that your ideal for gold is $1000. Thanks!
Asad
What's you take on oil next week? Agree that we'll break 70? It's the general weakness across the board that could have a drag effect!
What's your level?
Asad