EURUSD 1.1851 |
USDJPY 111.52 |
GBPUSD 1.3772 |
AUDUSD 0.7485 |
USDCAD 1.2406 |
GBPJPY 153.59 |
EURJPY 132.15 |
AUDJPY 83.48 |
CADJPY 89.86 |
Silver 26.23 |
Friday's $2431 high in gold consisted of a 21% rise from the Feb 14th low. Such percentage extensions from key lows or/and technical levels such as the 200-DMA, could flag crucial opportunities for partial/full profit-taking. Watch here.
Bitcoin versus Miners Performance
As many of you know 2023 was kind to members of our WhatsApp Broadcast Group who snapped up shares in bitcoin miners, while 2024 has so far been more superior to Bitcoin than most of the miners...
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Ashraf - 'On Holiday' & Money - 'Come and get me'
I was telling Smiler to get the oil money b/w 69.50 & 70.50 ("I doubt it'll breach 71. 70.50 or 70.60, let's see. I hope you've got your limit in place to bank on the 69.50 - 70.50 delta.") & we were given the chance. :) Hope you guys banked it!
Footsie was a sure shot one! Even my three-yo niece could tell that the world equity markets fell on Monday & Footsie, believe me, is not as powerful as DJ & Nikkei to have opposed the trend. It's not rocket science, is it? :) There was easy money lying around this morning - real easy money!
Spec, NEVER underestimate the power of common sense...
Ashraf, I have booked a place at the CMC presentation in Dublin and am looking forward to hearing you. FX Handler, take care of yourself and I hope you get back trading soon.
Even as we speak (sleep?), oil has breached $70...as stated a couple of hours ago. I doubt it'll breach 71. 70.50 or 70.60, let's see. I hope you've got your limit in place to bank on the 69.50 - 70.50 delta.
Ashraf, do you think I'm being overly aggressive? Because I would like to think that I am being extremely cautious...and in control. Not a sign of complacency. But I can't seem to separate the emotion from the trade. I've set my shorts at every $2, increasing by a factor of 1.5. Still, I'm pretty tight on risk management!
Let me know how I'm coming across to you. because I would ALWAS think I'm cool, until...boom! ;)
Sorry to hear that. But don't worry...I'll be following you pretty soon. ;) But I TOTALLY disagree that you had to take sick-leave & sit at home. The world is not ending, is it? Neither is oil. :)
Golden rule in life. We all start w/ 200. I wasn't that fortunate...and did with 100. When I made my first 100 on it, I took my initial capital (100) out...and BELIEVE ME...I felt like Warren Buffet!! Swear...I felt like George Soros - I...Asad...made a 100% profit...and took out my initial capital?? That was like six years back. :)
Look, start again w/ that 200. Forget you're going to get that money overnight. Even if Israel attacks Natanz tonight...and oil jumps to $200/barrel...NONE of us can make obscene money unless we've invested 200K into the market (sorry, barring Ashraf...who must be dipping 2m just-for-fun *heheh*)
Save 200 and make a fresh start. Say, if you were trading CFD...and you bet 2/point (if not 5)...you could have made near 1000 within seven hours today when oil went from 73 to 69. My own friend made 2700 when I woke him up in the middle of the night to tell him 'today was the day'.
ANYONE who stays short on oil hereon until 60...on 2/point is collecting what...near 2000. And believe me...2/point is kids play! I always believed (my original thinking)...that getting INTO a bullish market is a science...while getting OUT in a falling market is an art!
Similarly, risk management (which Qin is SO against) is both a science and an art. Everyone knows the science, but it is the art that a few understand...
I have been bearish for awhile and I am still. No point to think that the track we are in now will be the same in the future. I fucked up my trades (lost all my cash) as a begineer last year, even though I was one of the people predicting the finance crisis (more of this in another letter).
Anyway, I have come down on earth now, thinking, we are not going ultimate bearish but there are allot of shit to come.....
the thing is, we are here to get some good ideas, from eachothers. ( I cannot trade anymore, cause it went totally to my brain, I am on sick-leave now too much went the wrong way, I didnt know what I was doing in the end....)
But I am here to learn from my mistakes. I did all the wrong things in the beginning. I ordered Ashraf book for 2 weeks ago, but still not here.
Anyway, I hope all here can learn from eachother and Ashraf. He is not 100%. But I think he is very close to 99%!!!!!
And that should be enugh.....
;-)
You SAID it mate:
'The reason why you and Qin is so big enemies is because you both are so extreme in your way of thinking.'
As for Ashraf, he's the grand-daddy of intermarket analysis! I think he needn't even CONSIDER what people have to say about him (unless its Lloyd Blankfein or Tim Geithner). I'm sure Qin & the likes are just time passes. Good fun Ashraf, eh? ;)
It's simple. Like it, stay. Hate it, leave. Love it, GROWL!
Guys, I'll tell you what (while Ashraf's on holiday). Do you know why Goldman bought a 10% stake in CMC? Because they couldn't Ashraf to join them. Shhhhhhhh!
If you ever decide to give (paid) advice on oil, remember me as you sidekick! A great man once said, 'Remember the ordinary on your way up...you'll be requiring the same people on your way down!' At least in oil, I'd like to think our analyses are somewhat near!
I have done some successful trading in gold (Raulin, the LAST thing you should speculate on is Forex, then GOLD, then oil), but the margins required are larger than in oil. Besides, if you know how to gauge one of oil, gols, USD...you can pretty much (ok, somewhat) predict the other two. But for females, yeah...I'd do anything! Even go long on oil. Right now!
Smiler, oil will touch & kiss 70.50, I believe, sometime today...and then we should be heading down. I know this can irritating at times, but I must repeat, and emphasize, the importance of stops & limits (& OCOs :p)! On a sunny day, imagine you're short $65 overnight & Israel attacks Natanz! Boy, you won't even have this laptop to write what happened to you. *heheh* On a serious note, long within 70...and then stay short (for Qin: my position. Do you wish to know my age & salary too? *heheh*)