Forum > View Topic (Article)
by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Sep 11, 2009 14:18
Comments: 103
View Article
This thread was started in response to the Article:

Unusual FX Action?

Broadening USD weakness is joined by broad yen strength rather than weakness could have implications for FX view on appetite.
 
1...34567891011
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
15 years ago
Sep 11, 2009 20:31
apache. yes about the gold part but Aussie has a lower entry point.. about 0.8440s and/or 0.8270s.

Frank, looking for 950-60 gold.

Said, in order for 1.20 to happen, things would have to be quite ugly in the market. The rule of the monthly rules on eurusd would not allow a break below 1.23. i personally do not expect it. can things turn ugly? sure, the veil of liquidity is so vast, that is unclear lies beneath.

Ashraf.
said
mulhouse, France
Posts: 2822
15 years ago
Sep 11, 2009 20:20
ashraf
superb article
do u think we are heading to a argentiers payback over the next months years
if 1.37 is support then a break down to this level will confirm a down trend that can push the dolar at 1.20
i know it is not a day trader attitude but that will allow me to complement some understanding on money flow
thanks
Frank
Vancouver, Canada
Posts: 32
15 years ago
Sep 11, 2009 20:06
Ashraf

Will we get a big sell off in gold with a stock market correction ? Or will gold hold on to it's gains ..

Thanks

Frank
apache99sg
Singapore
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Sep 11, 2009 17:51
Ashraf,
this is a good article. I was wondering myself when I saw the price action today.
Are you still bullish on aud & gold? I am looking for entry point in both aud & gold...so you see 950 in gold and 0.8250-0.8260 in AUD/USD as potential entry point?

thanks!
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
15 years ago
Sep 11, 2009 17:41
Rob, not sure about USD rising dramatically but AUDUSD stop can be placed at 0.87 just to be on safe side. The oil rally never had any legs and that was a very loud message. so the most obvious play play was CADJPY.

Ashraf
rpats
London, UK
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Sep 11, 2009 17:32
not just todays gains... but I think USD weakness is over exaggerated now and as the equity markets weaken... Dollar will gain strength.

Also numbers released by Japan raise a concern over export losses due to yen strength.

-Rpats
Rob
New York, United States
Posts: 305
15 years ago
Sep 11, 2009 17:15
rpats - why, if I may ask, are you "selling JPY"? Because of the gains it's making today specifically?
rpats
London, UK
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Sep 11, 2009 17:12
I'll give it couple more days to see how things shape up(standing on sideline).... then converting everything back to USD.
If no Major events, movements by EOD Monday... I'll be backing the USD again and selling GBP and JPY.

Closing all my open poistions, seems this weekend will turn out to be a crucial one.

- Rpats
Rob
New York, United States
Posts: 305
15 years ago
Sep 11, 2009 17:07
Interesting redstone - I wonder if that's because they're expecting fundamentals in Japan to deteriorate. Also, Japan's expected 0.9 GDP turned out to be 0.6 as you probably already know. I'm definitely sticking with the Yen. But I wouldn't be surprised if the USD rallies. I'm still wondering when Citi and BoA are going to have to deal with trillions of dollars worth of toxic "assets" and scare everybody senseless. I'm not sure about this market, especially the volumes -- we could go further, obviously, but I think the big question is "correction?" or "range-bound?" in equities. The former being USD and JPY bullish in my opinion.

If 76 on USD index holds - I think that's going to be a very bullish signal for the dollar

You can see today, that all Yen crosses overshot in the past weeks by a lot! The dow is only down about 20 points and the Yen is skyrocketing.

Also, we may just be dealing with key technical levels --- if I'm not mistaken we've seen a 50% retracement in the S&P and 38% in DOW.

BTW - Did that article give any good explanation? Is it because they think risk appetite is on the rise (hence sell Yen) --- and US fundamentals doing better (hence buy dollar)?
redstone
bristol, UK
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Sep 11, 2009 16:50
Hi Rob, shares magazine now saying sell the yen an buy the dollar ! Hmm I think ill stick with yen for the time being what r ur thoughts ?
Report Reply
1...34567891011