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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Sep 11, 2009 14:18
Comments: 103
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Unusual FX Action?

Broadening USD weakness is joined by broad yen strength rather than weakness could have implications for FX view on appetite.
 
Rob
New York, United States
Posts: 305
15 years ago
Sep 16, 2009 5:26
You took the words out of my mouth Ashraf (regarding comments on the site)- kind of like the questions I asked you about the AUD/USD and Shanghai market before you tweeted it a few days ago! Ha. If I could only get more inside your head :). Not necessary, you gratefully share it all, and thanks for that - In the meantime I'll stick with my G-rated comments.

Let's see if the stock markets go same way they did when Warren Buffet last announced (fall '08) he/Berkshire was buying stocks! Bloomberg just reported that he that he said he is buying again.
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
15 years ago
Sep 16, 2009 2:03
raj, i see the last straw for the Dow at 9775-80. i said a million times, data is indeed improving, but the data that matter are consumer related, such as Tuesday's retail sales. we need contination.

spec, correct about USD being the more consistent option for carry trades. the only way for USD rebound to occur is a violent unwinding of risk appetite (2-3 times deeper and longer than the mini selloff we had in had in early September).

fxhandler, Can you continue to argue about the market without calling people "ignorant, stupid" and using foul names? Even if spec continues to stick with his strong dollar idea, why do you use insults and attack him? do you notice how he never attacked you or insulted you? im sure you can do the same thing. focus on the arguments and not on the person. this way others could benefit from your and/or his arguments and could add their own input. but if you call people names, nobody will benefit. i do have other things to do than telling people about respect and good manners.

Ashraf
speculator
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Sep 16, 2009 1:12
fxhandler i agree with your points but life is not fair fullstop. its a long way away till the dollar gets replaced as a reserve.

FXHandler
Norway
Posts: 195
15 years ago
Sep 16, 2009 1:03
Spec,
yes, dollar can go higher, as I also expected, risk aversion and stocks beeing over evaluated. The overall stock market follow the US. But, when after some time, countries will not follow the US anymore!!! This is what I hope for as well. Most are sick and tired of their following crisis... their wars, their problems, their stupid decisions! It is time for Europe to be the dominant in this WORLD!!

But you have a tendency to talk about strenghtening in the US economy! This is far from any truth at all! As a bankman, you should know this!
Most of guys are sick and tired of the US-lies! So, after reading your BS stories for 6 months... I get sick too! There is only one way for the US economy in total..... it is DOWN!!!!

best regards
speculator
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Sep 16, 2009 0:42
fxhander show me one economy that is not struggling.

Dollar is forming a short term bottom excluding yen pair.

Lets not focus on longer term.

Dollar is on a win-win basis due to possible risk unwinding (overvaluation in stocks) and/or US coming out of recession first. Remember, markets don't always reach fair value in short term. So don't discount the dollar being higher end 2009.
FXHandler
Norway
Posts: 195
15 years ago
Sep 16, 2009 0:09
SPEC:
By the way, I just shorted JPY/NOK since last Friday and go out today, giving 107.000 Nok.
Show my some of your trading entries!

Best Regards
FXHandler
Norway
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Sep 16, 2009 0:04
Spec,
You got to understand something about the dollar. The dollar go high up of risk aversion, but is slows down when US economy is going down and Vice Versa, when US economy go up, the dollar go up. Sorry, I guess you know this already.

But can you see any fundamentals giving a good economy for the US right now?
You gotto to be kidding me if you say so!!!! Anyway, I know from my job, US can sell shit, and they have done for many years! Many of their products are shit compared to many other commodity producing countries, but US are so good in selling.

(Don't you think they are selling YOU this shit also?)

Now people are fed up with their bullshit, and also China! It is time the US take their finger and stick it in the ground and see what kind of economy they have beeing living of... otherwise they could stick their finger up some other place....

They fuck up this world, time over and over again. Now oil price... they fucked that up also.

For us in Norway, it is volatility like shit, we have a good economy, but the oil price is going up and down too much. The point is the US dollar is trending DOWN!!!! Anyone can see it! So, it means the the oil price should go sky high?.... Well I don't know, but the thing is, many investors here look at the oil price, still it doesnt matter, as long as the oil price is given in US dollar!
So in NOK... Oil is actually going in a down-trend now. However, stock market react positive on US market... It is silly!!!
Stupid!
If you compare oil prices, SnP prices and echange it from US dollar, it means it is actually less worth now than before. The rise of the stockmarket in US have no fundamental ground, and it have also no actuall comparizing pricing against any other country!

Spec: I have been very patient with you, undertood you. But you are far out. You talk to me about eating, and getting fat, this ha nothing to do with the economy at all! You MUST be a bankman!!!
I told Qin to relax about you, I gave you my respect. But you are far out man, nevertheless, I will never trust a "bankman" ever again. You guys still don't have F----k clue!

And... Why do you tell me that the EU is not printing money? In Fact they ARE!!! You should know this, as a bankman! Everytime some country want to depreciate their currency, that is what they do!

However, I also beleived in a dollar rally. But this seems abit stupid now. Nobody beleive in it anymore (so it should rally then...) but the thing is that as long as they print their money, no one will buy their shit.....
Untill the US have (once again) fooled normal people to buy stocks and the rally is to an end, then they will sell out all their stocks and pay some of their debt!!!
After that, we get it over again. The next 1-20 years will be very volatile!!!

Can't you see this SPEC? (and stop beeing so ignorant!)




speculator
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Sep 15, 2009 23:29
*dollar will rise
speculator
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Sep 15, 2009 23:29
thanks just saw the video. problem with this guy is he is a nutter and always negative about most governments and believes the world will collapse. but i dont discount all that he says but his assumption is central banks will print money to bolster stock prices even if stocks fall - this may not happen thus aid dollar. he is too old school and belives history always repeats. once fed ends QE stocks should fall due to overvaluation and no more reasons to rise short term. dollar will but more so against pound.
asad
London, UK
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Sep 15, 2009 23:18
Spec,

Btw, I read an article on B'berg yes'day which DID say that USD IS carry traded for funding risky assets. But not sure if this the primary reason for its weakness.

StanChart forecast that USD will turn the tables by the year end. D. bank - kings of forex - predicted USD will be hammered further down to 16% by year end (currently -11%), before recovering early next year...