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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Sep 23, 2009 20:17
Comments: 57
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This thread was started in response to the Article:

Yield Curves, FX & LIBOR Trends

Medium term trends indicate the US yield curve is ready for a major break out at the expense of the USD, while LIBOR trends offer more downside room for GBP.
 
 
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Monica
London, UK
Posts: 4
15 years ago
Oct 16, 2009 22:59
Ashraf,

Thank you for having taken the time to reply and for sharing your thoughts.

Kind regards
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
15 years ago
Oct 16, 2009 19:12
Monica, the next decline in EURGBP is only likely to be of a corrective nature, unlikely to extend below 0.87. 50% chance we will retest 0.89. Then we could gradually regain 0.95 and 0.97.

Ashraf
Monica
London, UK
Posts: 4
15 years ago
Oct 16, 2009 15:13
Ashraf,

First of all, apologies for not being able to contribute to the forum with any personal comments. I am not a trader or a speculator and have little knowledge of the subject matter.

I read your article "Deflation Threat to QE Currencies" posted the 14/10 on The Market Oracle sitehttp://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article14204.html) and, given the recent rally of GBP, would like to know if you still stand by the view expressed therein with regard to EUR/GBP.

I have been agonising for months whether and/or when to exchange my little pot of Euros into as I would like to be able to buy a little place to live in eventually.

Any comments would be very much appreciated.
Thank you.
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
15 years ago
Oct 11, 2009 15:51
bock, the yield bounce has been quite substantial, which weighed on the yen. but i hesitate to call the end of the yen rally. past 6 months has shown plenty of short-lived bounces in yen crosses and i see this one to be limited at 92-93 against USD.

Ashraf
bockdharma
Indiana, United States
Posts: 3
15 years ago
Oct 11, 2009 2:42
Ashraf--I hope you are having a relaxing weekend. My question comes from concepts in this curve article, the last IMT on Friday, and the workbook page on yields and yens crosses. There were plenty of jolts this past week--namely the RBA hike, the poor treasury auctions results Thurs, and great jobs #'s out of both AUS and CAD. So Friday we see a very nice spike in yields and the curve steepens. What really catches my eye here Friday is the tremendous yen weakness that on W and Th seemed more like noise or covering.

The workbook posts a great slide on the correlation between yields and the yen. What I am asking here is do you see a major turn here on the yen, assuming we continue to see UST yields continue to play catch up with competing global assets? Therefore, this week appears to be, at least fundamentally, a major turning point and line in the sand for the YEN. Yes or No?

Thanks in advance for any insight you may have the time to share....
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
15 years ago
Oct 8, 2009 20:15
raj, floor is falling fast for USDCAD. lets see if we clsoe above 1.0525. watch out for Canadas job numbers tomorrow. expected to see a decline again after that increase in August .

i see 1.45 in EURUSD for now, especially if we again fail 1.4860s

Ashraf
14raj
Kolkata, India
Posts: 210
15 years ago
Oct 8, 2009 18:30
Ashraf,
the way USd/CAD and USD/JPY is behaving its something like they got some support at 1.0550 and 8800 level respectively. May be my long positions in these two pairs made me think like this. Thats I want to know your view. I have long in USD/CAD at 1.0625 and at 1.0525 and in Yen i have at 88.15 and at 89.00 levels.Even in one post you said that DX is taking support near 75. Can we see Euro/Usd at 1.4460 level soon?
Regards,
Rajib.
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
15 years ago
Oct 8, 2009 17:27
Abood, not sure about the "perfect point", but continues to fail the 72.50 resistance (right shoulder) so selling at 72.30-50s with a stop at 73.10 and initial limit at 70.50

Ashraf
Abood26
Damascus, Syria
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Oct 8, 2009 16:58
Hello Ashraf what is the perfect point to seel OIl and Eur/USd
Thanks
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
15 years ago
Oct 8, 2009 15:51
EVERYONE, my USDCAD view from the last 3 days on IMT is UNCHANGED
1.0525 remains is a big support equivaklent of 95 US cents to 1 Canadian dollar. Upside target starst 1.0660. watch out from Canadian jobs tomorrow.

Again, please read recent IMTs.

AUDUSD downside limited to 0.87 for now. again, more downside in AUDJPY.

Ashraf
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