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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Nov 10, 2009 16:34
Comments: 611
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This thread was started in response to the Article:

Don't Forget the Yen

Much ado about USD rebounds during falling markets, but JPY strength still outperforms USD.
 
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rkkashmir
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Jan 27, 2010 22:36
Ashraf,

Thank you for the timely response. My view is in general from here on out, save a few "bouts of concern U.S.-wise", a higher percentage of risk aversion will be NON U.S. related.

Stae of the Union may be a downer of jpy crosses, so I have a tight stop on my long position, and will look to resstablish long usd/jpy position at 89.50/89.00 should my stop get triggered.

I'll be looking for your update on this pair after you take a look at the charts.

Thanks again.
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
15 years ago
Jan 27, 2010 22:26
radu, kashmir, i need to revisit the monthly chart, which helped me be very sure about 94 3 weeks ago. I dont see the biggest downside in USDJPY here UNLESS thesource of risk aversion is US macro related. if on otherhand the source of risk aversion is NON-US related than that could help USDJPY.




Ashraf
rkkashmir
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Jan 27, 2010 22:09
Ashraf-

With the outcome of the FOMC meeting, and Hoenig being a dissenter, a strong US Q4 GDP report do out Friday, and a bump-up in U.S. 10-yr yields, does this put usd/jpy in a more "bullish" position. Or does global risk aversion into yen still make this pair very suspect?

Thanks.
radu
bucharest, Romania
Posts: 203
15 years ago
Jan 27, 2010 21:20


Hi Ashraf ,

I try to pluck a usd/jpy forecast for these days from you , but it"s possible to overleverage with my questions (i do that because i have a position on this pair).
I understand your point ....once again .

THKS
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
15 years ago
Jan 27, 2010 20:37
Radu, yes i used to speak a lot about USDPY, calling for 92 and 94 but we stoopped at 93.75. Then i saw clearer signs in EURUSD, USDCAD and GBPUSD hence i spent more time on those. USDJPY went against me but i didnt want to jump on it as BOTH currencies are strong so it does NOT make sense to spend look for trading opps between 2 strong currencies.


Ashraf
montmorency
Abingdon, UK
Posts: 610
15 years ago
Jan 27, 2010 19:16
Just watchedhttp://blip.tv/file/3138146 (see Ashraf's tweets): among other things, he said "....the Asian session is going to go crazy...." (because of combination of State of Union speech & Fed/FOMC).

Seatbelts on...
montmorency
UK
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Jan 27, 2010 19:03
Well looks like my 1.6239 isn't going to get triggered today, but (for once) I'm not chasing the market down, and will wait and see what happens in Asia and tomorrow in Europe. It'll (probably :-) ) be back ...actually have trimmed it down to 1.6229, but that may change again.

Also have orders for
(Short) EUR/USD 1.4085

& (Long) EUR/GBP 0.8659
PippedOff
Canada
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Jan 27, 2010 18:24
Good luck Big Pablo Richard. I hope your mini account has enough equity to overpower the rest of the world's $$.

When will we hear from Big Richard again?
Pablo
Bolivia
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Jan 27, 2010 18:05
Two month USD rally is very close to failing. My 89.50 usd/jpy hanging in there. Time to go long euro-sentiment is overwhelmingly bearish and everyone is predicting 1.38 or less. Similar to Ashraf's VIX call from last week.
radu
bucharest, Romania
Posts: 203
15 years ago
Jan 27, 2010 17:45



Hi Ashraf ,

You talk pretty much about usd/jpy , but from aprox 1 week you was very quiet about that...(i can"t saw your last interview)...yes i know , aud&cad/jpy...
So , are you still stick with usd/jpy -- 94 in february , how you said me last date ?
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