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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Nov 27, 2009 16:51
Comments: 404
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This thread was started in response to the Article:

Gold & Yen's Perfect Desert Storm

Yen strength still eclipsing USD rebounds during risk aversion. while gold's ascent is better gauged against currencies other than the US dollar.
 
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Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
15 years ago
Dec 12, 2009 5:08
Rob, that 15% drop in the oil/euro ratio looks like will happen. And yes, as you asked in your question, mid Dec would be the target.

Ashraf
speculator
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Dec 11, 2009 19:45
elliot wave is not good for short term trading decisions but for directions in medium term i.e a couple of months as i dont think its a market timing tool. they warned of a huge dollar rally and gold collapse in nov as they worked on the basis of a bottomed dollar. interesting that they did not speculate against falling stocks with dollar.

the dollar is likely to rebound for a couple of months at least but lets not get too carried away. The dollar is cheap and the yen/pound could become a much much better funding currency and should replace dollar gradually due to fed tightening.
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
15 years ago
Dec 11, 2009 15:20
Wasup, eurjpy wont break beloew 125 until next year.

goddess, thanks for showing up. probably in later spring.

Ashraf
partisan
London, UK
Posts: 43
15 years ago
Dec 8, 2009 22:17
Speculator - I'm a little circumspect about Elliott Wave, having held off buying precious metals (when Gold was at $850-950 over the summer) on their repeated forecasts of looming multi-month USD rise and collapse in Gold to $650, these forecasts often suggesting such moves to be imminent.

John
goddess
Beijing, China
Posts: 7
15 years ago
Dec 8, 2009 17:22
Just listened your lecture six hours ago in Beijing. When will you be back to Beijing for the next lesson?

rim
Turkey
Posts: 121
15 years ago
Dec 7, 2009 16:36
Spec ,
You are very right , I also think as same as you
dollar will go up much , since the market need money and gold is not money , if gold becomes money then economy stops because to drink a cup of coffe even not possible,

have you mentioned dollar turns began in Japan , their intervention rumour JPY can hit again 100

EUR/ Dollar may be nearly 1.40

Do you agree?
speculator
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Dec 7, 2009 8:44
elliot wave predictions had forecasted a huge dollar rally/gold crash nov/dec time to lasting 12 months. The target for USDx is 90 and gold $600.

I still stand that we are in a dollar bull and the bottom was in 2008 when USDx hit around 72. We could target 80 on the index by xmas.
Wasup
dublin, Ireland
Posts: 54
15 years ago
Dec 7, 2009 0:10
Hi Ashraf,
What do you think of EURYEN this week, do you think it will break 135.70 this week.
Rob
New York, United States
Posts: 305
15 years ago
Dec 6, 2009 0:49
My 2 cents - On Yen - anyone who would have predicted a job loss of only 11K and a DROP in the unemployment rate to 10% would have been ripped a new one - even from the bulls. It appears to me that Yen downside emerged because it looked like the US (and perhaps world) was making an enormous turning point. If in fact the world economy was viewed in such a way, who would buy the Yen. In fact, you would sell the Yen, which is precisely what happened. If people didn't begin selling Yen, then a short squeeze in the Yen crosses must have occurred, perhaps both.
Economic data, especially NFP's is ALWAYS going to be a marker-mover NO MATTER WHAT the fundamentals were before going into it. Markets are ridiculously impulsive, especially these days. But then again, when it can be explained after the fact, it usually does make at least some sense.
I was too darn focused on the USD, that I didn't buy the Yen crosses, and almost want to kick myself for it. Oh well, more opportunities abound...with Ashraf's help - thank you!

Anyhow, Ashraf - I suppose we need to wait and see what happens before speculating on how US NFP's will affect the market going forward? Thoughts? I'm sure you'll write an article on it anyway. Thanks.
partisan
London, UK
Posts: 43
15 years ago
Dec 5, 2009 10:15
Ashraf - Do you see Friday's substantial USD rise as being the result of concerted international intervention by the authorities vis-a-vis Gold's recent ascent and/or other factors? Could it be the tipping point/trigger for desertion from the USD by the carry trade (into the JPY) or is it just a blip, with JPY to resume having the edge over USD as per your previous recent postings? If the carry trade moves out of the USD could this provoke large falls in Wall St and other markets? In such an eventuality would you see Gold and Silver having a substantial pullback (ie. more than 15%) and damaging consequences for your previous positive projections for the next 3-6 months? And, finally, where do you see the NOK in all this?

Your thoughts on all this and other the implications of Friday's moves would, as ever, be outstandingly valuable.

With many thanks,

John
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