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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Feb 20, 2010 5:00
Comments: 30760
Forum Topic:

EUR

Discuss EUR in this thread
 
speculator
Posted Anonymously
12 years ago
May 15, 2010 18:31
the problem here is bakruptcy has passed from corporations to the government coupled with huge unemployment and unsustainable fiscal practices. The only way risk can rally firmly is if investors see solid economic rebound ie falling unemploymet rates and rising GDP. We are not really seeing much of this at present. The advent of higher taxes around the world will only curtail economic recovery. 2010 will proove to be a very difficult year for money managers that use simple approaches. Hedge funds are likely to perform very well!

ps next week i may be working for Barclays wealth investments fingers crossed.
rim
Turkey
Posts: 121
12 years ago
May 15, 2010 17:41
Dear Ashraf ,

May I know your opinion on possible EU rate hike near term in order to prevent collapse in EU,

since FED will nor hike rate to prevent more collapse of EU , but conditions will force them ?
Karan
Singapore, Singapore
Posts: 83
12 years ago
May 15, 2010 14:02
@ speculator - i highly doubt the fed is going to increase interest rates this year eventually the issue of who is going to increase interest rates first will temporarily disappear each time the FOMC meets, pushing the euro up. Any good news whatsoever from the Eurozone will push risk assets up as well. This is of course, just short term. Longer term i think you are right.
speculator
Posted Anonymously
12 years ago
May 15, 2010 13:15
FX handler thanks. I am a long term currency investor. At the time when I posted my dollar to rally 4cast in late 2009, most of the banks were calling for a weaker dollar. Also in q1 i warned about the heavy hedge fund speculation against pound and euro and that this should not be taken lightly...a few months later the trend extrapolates.

There will be little reason to buy euro and pound against the dollar for 2010. The only way this could change is interest rates in UK/Euro to rise at a faster pace than in US. I doubt these central banks will raise inetrest rates at this time.

The pound is HIGHLY likely to breach 1.35 against the dollar this time round although i am not certain of it.
catnip
Frankfurt, Germany
Posted Anonymously
12 years ago
May 15, 2010 10:09
I do not believe but I give absolute precedence to the fact economics and value of money are strictly mathematical disciplines. Thus it cannot be otherwise but a coordinated devaluation of currencies although there is ever less money and ever less capital. I cannot follow those arguments on inflation.
There is ten times more debt than there is capital. That is deflation at its very best. Thus the next shoe to drop gradually is USD and JPY. I don't think EUR can regain 1.3 but it might go to 1.28 next week.
lucky
ibadan, Nigeria
Posts: 377
12 years ago
May 15, 2010 0:01
i believe if there no any sign of attention by policy makers in eurozone and ecb during the weekend be prepared for a free fall in euro in case of any euro correction its opportunity to short again
FXHandler
Norway
Posts: 195
12 years ago
May 14, 2010 22:55
Speculator
I was harsh to you earlier, last year. But I see you are a long-term trader. You got my respect, I think your analyzes are fully fundamental and might be very correct.

Good luck to you.
Karan
Singapore, Singapore
Posts: 83
12 years ago
May 14, 2010 22:52
@ catnip I am long eur/jpy and eur/usd as well.....@ horrible levels! where do you see euro recovery capped at? if greece is able to meet its bond obligations on Thursday, do you see the euro recovering? also, taking into consideration the USDX's 6 month streak, do you see it rising further?
catnip
Frankfurt, Germany
Posted Anonymously
12 years ago
May 14, 2010 22:45
I am long EUR too ...even EURJPY long. Gold showed signs of a top there short squeeze might have happened and indeed if everyone is short EUR it shouldn't drop much lower for now. Also UST 10 y note future is maximally overbought. However longer term EUR target is 1.21 at first.
Gunjack
London, UK
Posts: 1184
12 years ago
May 14, 2010 22:03
Just read a post over at zero hedge...the net short exposure on eurusd is at an all time high, nearly everyone is betting against the euro...any reversal would cause one hell of a squeeze most likely to 1.3 and beyond...Am going long eur calls for the sept expiry anway