EURUSD 1.1851 |
USDJPY 111.52 |
GBPUSD 1.3772 |
AUDUSD 0.7485 |
USDCAD 1.2406 |
GBPJPY 153.59 |
EURJPY 132.15 |
AUDJPY 83.48 |
CADJPY 89.86 |
Silver 26.23 |
Friday's $2431 high in gold consisted of a 21% rise from the Feb 14th low. Such percentage extensions from key lows or/and technical levels such as the 200-DMA, could flag crucial opportunities for partial/full profit-taking. Watch here.
Bitcoin versus Miners Performance
As many of you know 2023 was kind to members of our WhatsApp Broadcast Group who snapped up shares in bitcoin miners, while 2024 has so far been more superior to Bitcoin than most of the miners...
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The only stable economies with strong currencies will be Franc, Aud and cad . Commodity prices are likely to rise in future in long term as the world demand is bound to rise with time and thus boosting these currencies who have good fundamentals and stable economies. Unlike the dollar, euro and pound.
The system needs a change otherwise today it is greece and tomorrow it can be UK or US.
Central banks are diversifying there reserves buy buying gold and euro in the past this completely suggests that US dollar is not the right horse to bet on.
During last years in European countries I had use an exchange rate 1:1 in my mind otherwise I would not buy even a coffee by dollars earned in US.
This is of course exaggerated, but I suspect that Germany and France just wanted buy time with ($600 wow effect) and arrange over taking some Greek Islands in exchange of their Greek bonds. Germans will not need to go French Riviera for vacation anymore.
ECBs Gonzalez-Paramo: Details on sterilization of bond buys next week.
US weekly jobless claims fall to 444,000; slightly higher than expected
Portugal unveils deficit reduction package, about 50/50 tax hikes and spending cuts. Deficit projected at 7.3% this year, 4.6% next year.
Deutsche Bank CEO Ackermann says he doubts Greece can pay debts.
US sells $16 bln in 30-year bonds at 4.43%, bid-to-cover 2.60
S&P 500 falls 1.2%, DAX rises 1.2%; gold eases to $1232; oil falls $1.75 to $73.85
EUR/USD traded with a heavy tone throughout the session spending most of the day capped in the 1.2590 area. Talk of Chinese bids were heard in the 1.2540/50 area and much of the day was spent ranging between 1.2540 and 90, no surprise.
Prices turned lower late in the session as US equities accelerated intraday losses and the euro ended on its lows, around 1.2530. Less than a week after a trillion dollar package to save the euro, the euro trades 20 pips above spike lows made during a 10% crash in the S&P a week ago today.
Cable had a rough day as well. It broke the range of its recent base at the 1.4720 level and fell back all the way to 1.4610 where it met Asian demand. Poor UK trade figures were the fundamental excuse used for todays slde.
USD/JPY spent the session in narrow 92.60/92.95 ranges. Traders reported heavy offers being lowered to the 93.00 area after overnight weakness in USD/JPY.
Attempted to rally in Europe and again in the US but was unable to hold gains near 0.9025. We end not far from session lows at 0.8960.
Portugal PM, opposition leader agree new measures to cut 2010 budget gap by about 2 bln euros Reuters source
U.S. prosecutors ask if 8 banks duped rating agencies New York Times
Merkel: Stabilisation of the euro is an existential matter. Maintains vision that one day all EU-member states will join euro. Failure of the euro would be a failure for Europe. Crisis is an opportunity for EU to strengthen economic and political union, not just common currency
Leader of Spains biggest union: General strike over cuts last thing this country needs
Shanghai stock index ends up 2.1%, biggest percentage gain in 6 weeks
UK government says agreed 5% pay cut for all ministers statement
UK March global goods trade balance -7.522 bln, much worse than median forecast of -6.41 bln
Greek February unemployment rises to 12.1% vs 11.3% in January
Things started out quite brightly, European stocks following their Asian conterparts higher, and then things just sorta fizzled out somewhat.
EUR/USD started around 1.2655 and rallied early, but sell orders noted up at 1.2690-1.2710 were never really threatened. A big German bank (infact THE big German bank) came in selling aggressively and we fell quickly. Buy orders were noted down at 1.2600/10 but a US bank helped push these aside.
Stops tripped just below 1,.2600 and we fell to session low 1.2563, just above noted buy orders at 1.2550/60. BIS seen buying at 1.2585, could have been in lower. So in recent days seen them as sellers above 1.2700 and buyers below 1.2600. Ummm.
Cable started around 1.4860 and rallied fleetingly above 1.4900. Didnt last long though. The pairing was already under fairly heavy pressure when very poor trade data (see above) helped trip stops through 1,4800 and weve been as low as 1.4747 so far. Were presently at 1.4770.
USD/JPY has had active morning. Started around 93.20 and got as high as 93.64 (just shy of stops through 93.65) and that was that. As European stocks started to give up ground, so did EUR/JPY and USD/JPY.
Buy orders at 93.00/10 were eventually taken out after brief struggle and we eventually got as low as 92.62 before some recovery to 92.75 at writing.
EUR/CHF fell as low as 1.3997, taking out barrier option interest at 1.4000. That was quickly followed by large bid for 250 mln coming in at 1.4000/05. Given that earlier reports had SNB on the bid at 1.4005 well take it that it was them. Were presently at 1.4015,
During the USD's recent 10 year slide, fx managers have been shifting out
of US dollars into Euros to diversify their
portfolios of currencies. In the Far East, reserve managers
have been buying US dollars to manage the strength of their own currency to
help their domestic exporters. This meant that when the US dollar declined,
they had to buy US dollars and then in turn buy Euros to diversify.
So China and the peg of the yuan to the USD actually kept USD stable, and
Euro was bought vs USD to minimize risk. Very simple. After all one buys
varieties of food to minimze the risk of biased nourishment.
Reserve managers bought US dollars and then bought Euros driving the value
of the Euro higher as the dollar declined. Now, the inverse is occurring.
The US dollar is rising and taking away the need for reserve managers to
intervene to buy US dollars and subsequently taking away the need to buy
Euros.
That is USD profits in all ways as it becomes even overbought, Bernanke did
not "print" enough USD to satisfy demand. Thus US MUST make more debt and
sell as treasury bonds
when i said few months ago that euro at around 2, u told me "holly molly, at two"
but take care there is a hard ball play out there between money manager and hedge funder.
Then Why Is He Extending Them Loans? Wasnt it a week ago when Deutsche and other German firms announced they would supplement the German governments loan package to Greece?
Ackermann sees problems in Portugal, but thinks Spain and Italy will be okay, he said on German TV.
EUR/USD is taking the headline in stride, now near the top of the US range, at 1.2595.
Earlier Portugals largest opposition party PSD says they will support austerity measures announced by the government earlier today. The euro is getting no help from the news, while is was trading at 1.2554 2hours ago. Cable is leading the way at the moment, trading heavy at 1.4680. Technically, 1.4400 is the medium-term target. And here we were told conservatives election win will be taken positively by the markets.